Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has to win or come close in New Hampshire, her neighboring state, to be seen as a competitive primary contender. To get a sense of how she’s doing here, I’m attending her town hall on Monday in Peterborough, a rural town in Hillsborough County with just over 6,000 residents. Peterborough went solidly for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in the general election in 2016, but it’s home to a decidedly more liberal primary voting base. If Warren can win over progressive voters in Peterborough who may be inclined to go for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), she may have luck in several other small, neighboring towns with densely populated working class voters in the state. I’ll be listening to see if she addresses how her plan will help the state’s opioid crisis, which has crippled residents in the town and nearby areas, in her Monday event.
CASH FLOW. Several 2020 Democratic candidates have already released their fundraising totals for Q2, adding new anticipation for what’s to come from those who have not. So far, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leads the pack with $24.8 million raised, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at $21.5 million and Sanders at $18 million. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) brought in $12 million, ahead of Sen. Michael Bennett (D-CO) at $2.8 million and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock at $2 million.
The early totals come as President Trump and the Republican National Committee reported a massive $105 million haul during the same time frame.
But as the majority of contenders have recently cleared their first hurdle—competing in the Democratic primary debate late last month—fundraising numbers will be a leading indicator of how well candidates are doing, and how soon others will have to drop out.
I’m watching in particular to see Warren’s numbers, along with former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX), who have each shown strong fundraising abilities in previous races.
BUTTIGIEG’S NEXT MOVE. Buttigieg seems to be rehabilitating himself after a rough several weeks following a police shooting of an African-American man in South Bend. In addition to leading the Q2 fundraising race so far, he also managed to escape harsh criticism during the debates last month.
But the 37-year-old mayor has a steep climb ahead, particularly with black voters. In several recent polls, Buttigieg comes in at 0 percent of support with that demographic, seen as critical to winning the Democratic primary in 2020. I will be watching to see if Buttigieg’s campaign inserts itself into the brewing battle between Biden and Harris on issues involving race.
There’s an early indication that his campaign will play offense. A senior campaign adviser launched an unprovoked critique on Harris late this week, without mentioning her by name.
“The story of the 2020 Democratic primary shouldn’t be how individual candidates used debates to deep six rivals and push litmus test policies they’re gonna disavow once they get a poll back. Keep calm, carry on, and win the era!” Lis Smith, a senior adviser, tweeted, referencing Harris muddying the waters post-debate on her stance about busing.
There could be an upside if Buttigieg decides to weigh in on the tension: He could stand out in a crowded field of contenders who have so far declined to comment. But he’ll have to approach the issue delicately or risk further alienating black voters he needs to win over to sustain his edge.
CIVIL WAR RAGES ON. Biden for the first time called out Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) this week, saying that she’s "brilliant" and "bright," but does not speak to a broader general election appeal to Democratic voters across the country.
“I think Ocasio-Cortez is a brilliant, bright woman, but she won a primary,” Biden told CNN. “In the general election fights, who won? Mainstream Democrats who are very progressive on social issues and very strong on education and healthcare." The former vice president omitted to mention that Ocasio-Cortez also won her district’s general election matchup, ultimately securing her a place in the House.
Biden is the first top-tier 2020 Democrat to openly criticize the New York congresswoman, strongly suggesting he is not interested in her endorsement, coveted by other contenders. Sanders and Warren, on the other hand, are in an unofficial race for her official stamp of approval in the Democratic nominating contest, with each making a series of moves to court the freshman progressive.
I will be watching if other Democratic candidates are asked in the next few days about Biden’s comments, and if they take steps to distance themselves from him, or inch closer to his lane. Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, whose campaign is reportedly undergoing a drastic transformation after a series of missteps, is one Democrat who could easily criticize AOC in a similar way to Sanders, whom he routinely calls out for being a “socialist.”
