In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried the 9th State Senate district in Texas by 17 points. Over the weekend, however, Democrat Taylor Rehmet beat Republican Leigh Wambsganss by 14 points in a special election run-off. Republicans had, prior to this point, held the seat for decades—the incumbent who won last in 2022 had left to take a statewide position.
But, wait, there’s more.
Wambsganss outspent Rehmet 10 to 1. And Trump sent out three get-out-the-vote messages on her behalf via Truth Social over the last few days, describing her as a “true MAGA warrior” and candidate “who has my Complete and Total Endorsement.”
Trump has, of course, since pretended to know nothing about the race; “I’m not involved in it,” he said on Sunday. “That’s a local Texas race.” Ha!
Republicans were quick to note that the weather was bad in the Fort Worth area over the weekend and that turnout was very low. And that’s true. Less than 95,000 votes were cast. (In 2022, the last time the seat was on the ballot, there were more than 277,000 votes cast.)
The problem for Republicans? This Texas result is far from an outlier. As G. Elliott Morris notes, Rehmet’s win is the eighth state legislative seat that Democrats have flipped from Republican control since Trump was elected in November 2024. In that same period, Republicans have flipped a total of 0 Democratic seats.
The average Democratic over-performance in special elections at the state legislative and congressional level since Trump won a second term is now north of 13 points.
All of which means you simply can’t ignore the Texas result as an outlier or an anomaly.
Don’t believe me? How about Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis. While noting that special elections are “quirky,” DeSantis tweeted Sunday that “a swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed.”
As I have written before, there is now clear evidence that a Democratic wave is building. Yes, some questions remain: How big will it get? And will it sustain all the way through November?
But there can be no question that it exists.
