Nervous Republicans have urged Donald Trump to stay out of their districts as his popularity is in the gutter, according to insiders.
Battleground operatives worry that the president, 80, is corrosive to their brands, with the Iran war being the final straw in forcing incumbents and challengers to distance themselves from him. The pushback comes even in areas Trump carried by double digits in 2024, according to four GOP operatives who spoke to Politico.
Asked whether he wants Trump campaigning in his swing district this fall, Representative Rob Wittman gave a notably indirect answer.
“Listen, you know, I’m very happy with our campaign and the things that we’re doing,” he said. “Very confident with our conversations with the voters. I think we’ve got a great campaign plan, and we’re laser-focused on communicating with our constituents and talking about issues that are important to them.”
Top Republican pollsters have gone further, advising some vulnerable incumbents and candidates to avoid talking about Trump on the campaign trail altogether, or at least limit direct references to him, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter.
“We’ve told them he cannot come,” said a senior Republican involved in a competitive House race in a district Trump won by double digits in 2024. “Candidly, he would not be helpful here. I do not believe they would send him without our OK. And if they did, we probably wouldn’t campaign with him.”
One House Republican in a competitive race described the bind more bluntly. “Some of the guidance has been, ‘You’re f--ked if you mention him too much, and you’re also f--ked if you don’t stay in his good graces.’ So that is the problem,” the lawmaker said.
At a Rose Garden event on Wednesday, Trump said he plans to campaign for Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska and boost Ken Paxton in Texas, two states he won by roughly 14 points in 2024.
That’s where many Republicans want him focused. “Trump is still the most powerful turnout motivator for low-propensity Republicans or Trump Republicans, and so I think campaigns will and should use him and his brand in targeted ways like mail, digital, or text,” said one Republican operative working on multiple competitive statewide races.
“But I’m not going to try to bring him to town if he’s underwater and it’s going to hurt us with a majority of voters.”
The Republican National Committee is pushing back against the distancing strategy. “[Trump] is the biggest turnout machine for mid- to low-propensity voters and we need those voters to get to the polls,” said RNC National Press Secretary Natalie Baldassarre.
“If members are choosing to keep an arm’s length from the president, they risk alienating their base [and] they risk 15 to 20 percent of their key Republican voters not turning out because they don’t feel like they’re a good supporter of the president’s policies.”
Other Republicans agreed Trump can’t be avoided, for different reasons. “We can’t turn around now and pretend that we don’t know him,” said another battleground operative, noting many candidates leaned on Trump’s endorsement to win their primaries. “Anyone who tries to distance themselves after hugging, you just can’t get away with that.”
The tension comes as polling points to a brutal midterm for Republicans. A CNN poll conducted by SSRS from July 23 to 27 found Trump’s overall approval rating at just 34 percent, matching a career low last seen after his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in 2021. Half of Americans now strongly disapprove of him, a record high, while only 15 percent strongly approve, also a record.
The White House has been approached for comment.
