Morgan Stanley Economist Says Recession Could Hit U.S. in Less Than a Year if China Trade War Worsens

A recession could hit the U.S. in less than a year if President Donald Trump imposes more tariffs on the Chinese and if the Chinese retaliate, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist told Bloomberg. Chetan Ahya, chief economist and global head of economics at Morgan Stanley, said a recession could begin in as soon as nine months if Trump imposes 25 percent tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports and China retaliates with its own set of countermeasures. According to Ahya, the economy’s growth will suffer as costs increase, demand slows, and companies reduce spending. If Trump were to try to employ political remedies for the recession, Ahya said it might be too late as policies are slow to take effect.