Donald Trump’s Iran war is emerging as a major midterm liability for Republicans, with CNN data analyst Harry Enten warning that the conflict could drag the GOP down in November.
The conflict, launched without congressional authorization, has proven deeply unpopular while gasoline prices have climbed from roughly $3 a gallon before the war to more than $4, squeezing household budgets.
The White House insists the increase will be temporary.
White House spokesperson Kush Desai told the Daily Beast this week: “Just as oil prices plummeted to pre-Operation Epic Fury levels when the Administration’s initial MOU was signed, oil prices— along with overall inflation—will plummet again when President Trump forces a successful resolution with Iran.”
But Republican strategists have repeatedly warned that higher prices could damage the party in November.
“If Democrats could sustain leads on the economy and win double-digit margins among independents as some polls show, a Blue Wave is possible,” GOP strategist David Winston said.
Polls offer a stark measure of just how deeply frustrated voters have become with the war.
Speaking on CNN News Central on Tuesday, Enten pointed to perhaps the clearest warning sign: among voters who are extremely motivated to vote, Trump’s approval of his Iran handling has plunged from 53 percent in July 2024 to just 29 percent in July 2026, according to CNN/SSRS polling.
“That is a giant fall,” Enten said.
The 24-point drop represents a stunning reversal. Iran had been an advantage for Trump heading into the 2024 election, but Enten said it has now become a major weakness.
“What was an advantage for President Trump going into the 2024 election amongst those who really wanted to turn out a vote has turned into a tremendous disadvantage this time around. Promises were made and promises were not kept. They were broken as far as those voters were concerned.”
Voters also appear unconvinced that the war will produce a diplomatic breakthrough.
Just 27 percent of all voters believe the United States will ultimately reach a good deal with Iran, according to Fox News polling. Even among Republicans, only 41 percent expect a successful agreement.
“This, I think, perhaps is the most shocking thing about this,” Enten said.
“We are seeing below 50 percent across the board on this issue. And this is the reason I think more than any other that folks disagree with Trump and Iran, because they, simply put, don’t see what the point of it is. They don’t see a way out of it.”
Enten added the issue has become so politically toxic that Iran is now a very negative issue for Trump, adding: “Republicans wish he would keep quiet about it.”
That is because Trump’s handling of Iran is beginning to give Democrats a crucial opening heading into the midterms, with the war reshaping one of the GOP’s traditional strengths: voters’ trust in Republicans on national security.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that Republicans held an 18-point advantage over Democrats in January 2025 on handling wars, conflicts and terrorism. That lead has now disappeared, with Democrats holding a 2-point edge—a 20-point swing.
“If you see these numbers and you’re a Republican running for the United States Congress in these midterm elections, you might say, ‘Hey, this won’t impact me.’ Uh-uh, not the case.”
Enten emphasized the broader implication: “Down the Republicans go, because down goes President Trump. They are simpatico on this one.”
But Enten said the consequences could extend beyond the 2026 midterms and damage one of Trump’s most coveted personal ambitions.
“I think this crushed Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize. The chance Trump wins the Nobel Prize in 2026, according to the cash prediction markets. You go back a little bit under a year ago, it was a 33-percent chance. Now we’re down to just a 4-percent chance.
“The Iran war has brought Trump’s chances of bringing the Nobel Peace Prize down with him.”
