CNN’s data whiz Harry Enten has given a dire warning about GOP prospects after the party’s defeat in Virginia.
Voters in the state approved a redistricting measure that could help Democrats in their bid to win control of the thinly divided House of Representatives in the midterms.
Enten, speaking on The Source with Kaitlan Collins on Tuesday, said the Dems will now seek to “gerrymander this state rotten.”
“They are basically going to lock Republicans out of power in a state where Donald Trump got 46 percent of the vote back in 2024. House seats: Republicans in Virginia are only going to really end up with nine percent. That is quite the imbalance that‘s going on here,” he warned.
He said it fits a larger national trend of states voting to redistrict. It began in Texas, where Republicans pushed new lines to lock in gains, before Democrats countered in California with a map aimed at cutting into GOP-held seats. The ripple spread to Ohio, where a negotiated redraw still tilts Republican, and to North Carolina, where lawmakers advanced a strongly GOP-friendly map. In Utah, courts stepped in and imposed a redraw that slightly benefits Democrats.
“Democrats jump out ahead” because of Virginia’s “yes” vote, Enten explained.
He noted that the margin of the GOP majority in the House post-2024 election was two seats.
“That‘s how many seats they could lose on a vote before losing the majority. Now all of a sudden we’re talking about Democrats gaining one, two, three seats, four seats in Virginia,” he said, adding, “The simple math here is four is greater than two without Democrats needing to pick up any more seats. This would eliminate the Republican majority and instill a democratic majority because the margins are so tight.”
The Democrats currently hold six of the state’s 11 seats. The proposed maps backed by voters on Tuesday could give Democrats 10 of those seats.
Enten also noted how costly the vote was. “This vote in Virginia means so very much. And that‘s why all that money was spent on it. My goodness gracious,” he said.
The referendum fueled more than $81 million in ad spending, making it one of the most expensive contests in Virginia history outside a presidential election.
“VIRGINIA, VOTE ‘NO’ TO SAVE YOUR COUNTRY!” President Donald Trump wrote in a post on Tuesday morning in an attempt to influence the outcome.
But voters delivered a direct rebuke to the president, who has been pressuring Republican-led states to redraw their congressional maps mid-decade to favor GOP candidates—triggering a nationwide redistricting war in response.
