CNN’s Harry Enten has said that intense voter backlash to Donald Trump may result in a historic midterm defeat for the GOP in a deep-red state.
Enten, CNN’s chief data analyst, delved into the numbers after a New York Times/Siena poll found that MAGA Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall is tied with his Democratic challenger, Adam Hamilton, at 45 percent, with the Nov. 3 election just weeks away.
This follows another poll from The Hill/Emerson College Polling late last month that found Hamilton, senior pastor of the Church of the Resurrection, leading Marshall by 2 percentage points (45 percent to 43 percent).
The Kansas Senate race is extremely tight even though the Sunflower State has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932 or voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964.
During Monday morning’s broadcast of News Central, Enten suggested the race could produce a shock because “Trump is historically unpopular for a Republican president in the great state of Kansas.”
Enten then showed polling that revealed Trump’s underwater approval rating in Kansas is worse than that of any other Republican president at this point in this century. In 2002, George W. Bush’s approval rating in Kansas was plus 41, as he was still riding high in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, but it fell to plus 1 by 2006.
During Trump’s first term, he recorded a plus-5 approval rating in Kansas, but that has since plummeted to minus 15 points.
“He’s way down in the basement, 15 points underwater. That’s a 20-point shift away from the president of the United States. That is 16 points less popular than any other Republican president at this point in the term this century,” Enten said.
“And in fact, while we don’t have the polling data, if you look at the national polling data, I would say that Donald Trump is probably, at this point in the term, the least popular Republican president, probably since, well, Herbert Hoover.”
Enten also suggested other signs that could point to Democrats managing to flip in Kansas in November. This includes the state not being as ruby red as it once was, as it has tilted more to the left.
Between 2004 and 2008, only seven U.S. states were more Republican than Kansas, based on presidential election averages. Following the 2020 and 2024 elections, there are now 17 states more Republican than Kansas.
Hamilton’s popularity is also a factor to consider. An average of New York Times polling found that he has a plus-12-point approval rating, making him the most popular among the key Democratic Senate candidates.
“His ‘unknown’ is actually pretty high, and the people who do know him, they actually like him more than the average Democrat,” Enten said. “So I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets even higher net favorability ratings at this point.
“This, to me, is potentially a mathematical perfect storm,” he added. “A historically unpopular Republican in Kansas in Donald Trump, and a historically popular Democratic Senate candidate in Adam Hamilton. That may be the equation that gets Kansas its first Democratic senator in 94 years.”
The Daily Beast has contacted the White House for comment.
