Democrats in the South could steer the party to an unusual wave of victories in the midterm elections, CNN’s chief data analyst predicted.
Harry Enten said Democratic candidates Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia, former Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina, and state Rep. James Talarico of Texas are leading their Republican opponents by as high as double digits, according to various polls.
“So three Southern states, three former Confederate states, and you see that Democrats are leading in them all,” he said on Thursday. “There has not been a Senate Democratic win in North Carolina since 2008. And in Texas, you have to go all the way back since 1988, so it could in fact be a historic year for Democrats in these three Southern states.”
Polls have shown that Ossoff is leading his Republican opponent, Rep. Mike Collins, by 13 points; Cooper is up nine points against Michael Whatley; and Talarico has a two-point advantage over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
On top of their leads in Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas, Democrats are also “heavily favored” in Virginia, Enten said.
“We’re looking at something so historic potentially here,” he said, noting that the highest number of Democratic midterm wins in former Confederate states so far this century is only two.
“They could potentially win double the amount of races than they have in any midterm cycle this entire century in the Southern United States when you add together Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, and the Great Commonwealth of Virginia,” he explained.
Enten said the shift is primarily driven by white college voters who have made a leftward shift over the past decade.
In the 2016 presidential election, for example, North Carolina was +19, Texas was +31, and Georgia was +41, all in favor of the Republican candidate. In stark contrast, recent polling shows that North Carolina has turned +13 in favor of Democrats, while the GOP’s lead in Texas and Georgia has been slashed down to +1 and +13, respectively.
“We have seen that group move from the Republican column shifting towards the Democratic column,” Enten said of white college voters. “We’re talking about a 31-point shift on average among white college voters. They are driving this.”
“And when you put it all together,” he added. “The odds are moving in the Democrats’ direction.”
