Polling shows Democrats may not be on track for the trouncing they are hoping to give Republicans in the midterm election, according to a new analysis by CNN data guru Harry Enten.
Right now, polling averages show Democrats five points ahead of Republicans in the overall race to control Congress. However, that margin is smaller than at the same point in the last two midterm election cycles where a Republican held the White House.
During the 2018 midterms, which happened in the middle of President Donald Trump’s first term, Democrats held an eight-point lead in generic congressional polls at this point. In 2006, with the Iraq war tanking President George W. Bush’s popularity, Democrats notched an 11-point advantage.
“So, yeah, Democrats are ahead,” Enten said on CNN on Monday. “But they’re only ahead by five with a president whose net approval rating is bordering on minus 20 to minus 30, depending on what polls you look at. You’d make the argument Democrats should be way ahead, and they’re just only sort of, slightly ahead.”
Enten warned that while this relatively slim advantage may be enough to give Democrats control of the House of Representatives this fall, the Senate is a much tougher bet.
In the upper chamber, Democrats would need to pick up a net gain of four seats to win. To accomplish this, the party would have to claim victory in at least two states that Trump carried by more than 10 points in the 2024 presidential election.
In addition, the party would need to steal Maine from incumbent Republican Susan Collins and win North Carolina’s open seat, which is currently occupied by Republican Thom Tillis.
Enten said the GOP winning all Senate seats where Trump posted the 10-point margins is “the chalk scenario, where the most obvious events actually do occur.”
This is further bolstered by data presented by Enten showing that in the Trump era, no party has successfully flipped a seat that another party won by 10 or more points in the previous presidential election.
Underneath the polling on congressional control in 2026, Enten points to worrying numbers for Democrats on net favorability, with the GOP leading in these polls by five points.
That is a departure from past midterm years under a Republican president, where Democrats led by double digits in net favorability.
“Democrats are just, simply put, running behind their previous benchmarks. And they need to be running well ahead of them if they want to take back the United States Senate, given that math,” Enten said.
“To be clear, both parties are wildly unfavorable right now,” CNN host John Berman noted on the data.
“Correct,” Enten replied. “[However], Democrats are even more unpopular than Republicans.”
