Georgia is favored to elect a Democrat to the governor’s mansion and to the Senate for the first time in decades, CNN’s data guru has revealed.
Harry Enten says Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is not only heavily favored to retain his seat in Washington, but that Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democrat, is also favored to flip the governor’s mansion blue.
If prediction market estimates become reality, it would be the first time since 1990 that there has been a Democratic sweep of the governor and the U.S. Senate in the same cycle.
“This may be the most promising year for Democrats in a midterm cycle since I was at least yay high,” said the 38-year-old Enten, putting his hand at his chest. “The longest since I was in middle school. The longest for this entire 21st century.”
Citing Kalshi prediction market figures, which proved more accurate than traditional polling in the 2024 election, Enten said Ossoff has an 82 percent chance of besting MAGA candidate Mike Collins in November.
“He is the first Democrat to be a clear favorite for a Senate race in a generation [in Georgia],” he said.
Things are much tighter in the governor’s race.
Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor, has a 52 percent chance of defeating the Republican candidate Rick Jackson, a billionaire who won a GOP runoff despite President Donald Trump and Republican Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp endorsing his opponent.
“This is a close race,” Enten said. “This is a toss-up.”
Still, Enten appeared stunned that a Democrat is viewed as being the favorite at all.
“What we’re looking at right now is the potential for a historic election in Georgia for Democrats,” he said. “The first time potentially, since all the way back in 1990, in which they won both the governor’s race and the Senate race in the same year.”
He added, “Georgia looking a lot more blue.”
Georgia has moved steadily to the left, beginning during Barack Obama’s presidency. The state was represented by two Republicans in the Senate and by a Republican governor as recently as January 2021—but may soon be the inverse.
“Georgia is moving to the left as migrant patterns take place in the United States, as white college degree folks around the Atlanta suburbs move to the left,” Enten said. “Georgia is becoming more and more purplish—dare I say, blue this cycle—and that is why it wouldn’t be surprising to me if you got a two for Democrats between both the governorship and the Senate races, because Georgia’s moving left.”
Enten said Georgia, which Trump narrowly won in 2024, may be the ultimate bellwether state going forward.
“As Georgia goes, so goes the nation,” he said.
