CNN Data Guru Reveals How Lindsey Graham’s Sister Will Fare on Election Day
There has been a massive swing on prediction markets for the race this week.
Darline Graham Nordone has emerged as the “clear favorite” to win a GOP primary to replace her late brother in the Senate, says the CNN data guru Harry Enten.
Enten says the political newcomer’s comfortable lead is thanks to an endorsement by President Donald Trump in the wake of Lindsey Graham’s unexpected death on July 11.
“Darline Graham’s chances have rocketed up because rarely has the power of one man and his endorsements in primaries has been as strong [as] with Donald Trump,” he told CNN’s John Berman on Tuesday.
Kalshi gave Graham Nordone just a 14 percent chance of winning the primary as recently as Friday, prior to Trump’s endorsement. Now, the 62-year-old’s likelihood of winning has reached 80 percent.
Trump said he would give Darline Graham his full endorsement if she ran for her brother's seat in the Senate.
Evelyn Hockstein/REUTERS
“No wonder why the prediction markets and the conventional wisdom have moved so rapidly, once Trump made that endorsement, because at least in Senate races, Trump’s record this year is 100 percent,” Enten said.
Graham Nordone announced Monday she would officially run for her brother’s seat.
Sign Up for The Swamp Newsletter
By clicking “SUBSCRIBE” you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
She has already been appointed to finish Lindsey’s term, which ends in January, and has indicated that she will be more focused on domestic issues, like the affordability crisis, and less on ending the Russia-Ukraine war and beating the war drum over Iran.
Trump’s endorsement has not stopped Republican challengers from throwing their name into the mix, however.
The MAGA Rep. Russell Fry entered the race officially on Monday just ahead of Graham doing so herself.
In his launch video, Fry depicts himself next to Trump and declares himself a “MAGA Warrior.”
Fry says he is fully MAGA-aligned, perhaps only breaking with the president on who should be the Republican Senate candidate for South Carolina this fall.
Darline Graham Nordone speaks at a press conference outside the Governor's South Carolina State House office on July 13, 2026.
Grant Baldwin/Grant Baldwin, Getty Images
Republican Rep. Ralph Norman and the South Carolina businessman Mark Lynch have also entered the race.
Graham Nordone previously served as the head of South Carolina’s Commission for the Blind, one of the many jobs she has had that help people with disabilities find work. The Graham siblings were close growing up, especially following the loss of their parents when Lindsey was 22, and Darline was 13.
Graham Nordone has never run for or held office prior to this month.
See more of our coverage in your search results.
Got a tip? Send it to The Daily Beast here.
Register below to read this article for free or subscribe
to unlock unlimited access to The Daily Beast.
Monthly
$1
First month then $5.99/month
Annual
$35
First year then $59.99/year
Premium
$79
First year then $119.99/year
*Substack access provided by the next business day, using your subscription email. Choosing the Premium plan constitutes your permission to share your subscription email with Substack and your agreement to Substack’s Privacy Policy.
Already have an account? Sign In
Looks like you already have a subscription!
- Account (completed)
- Payment (completed)
- Confirmation (completed)
You're all set!
Thanks for subscribing.
- 1Account
- 2Payment
- 3Confirmation
Sign in or create an account
Login dialog
Loading comments…