Gas prices are surging at a rate unseen in any midterm year this century, according to CNN data analyst Harry Enten.
Prices have been rising since Trump began his war with Iran in February and the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for oil shipments, was closed.
But prices now stand at record-breaking levels.
Brent crude climbed to around $109 a barrel on Monday, its highest level since May, while gasoline has reached $4.32 a gallon and diesel a record $6.23, according to AAA.
Overall, gas prices have climbed 52 percent since January, according to the AAA. That is nearly double the previous midterm-year record of 27 percent and almost three times the 18 percent average.
“Normally gas prices do go up during the course of an election year, during the course of a midterm year, but never this high. This is record breaking. We are talking record breaking for a midterm this century,” Enten said.
That is especially striking because gas prices typically fall after Labor Day. In every midterm year this century, prices dropped between August 14 and September 14. This year, they rose 6 percent instead.
“Normally... there’s some relief going on with gas prices as we go into the midterm election. Not this year. In fact, the relief, not there at all. In fact, there is more pain at the pump now,” Enten said.
The price rises have caused alarm in the Republican Party so close to the midterms as they seek to defend their majorities in the House and Senate.
That is because polls have repeatedly shown that voters do not think the cost of the war is worth it.
In a recent CBS News/YouGov poll, 71 percent said they were unwilling to pay more at the pump because of the conflict, rising to 81 percent among independents.
Against that backdrop, Enten described the price rises as “killer stuff for congressional majorities.”
And polling is already offering a glimpse of the grim fate that could await the GOP in November.
In the CBS/YouGov poll, 54 percent of likely voters said they would support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district if the election were held today, compared with 46 percent who backed the Republican candidate.
Inside the White House, frustration is reportedly mounting as oil prices surge.
“The mood in the White House is ‘frustration they can’t get this resolved,’” former Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore told Politico. “The problem is there’s not too much they can do about it. It’s a global market, it’s a global oil supply.” Another former adviser said, “They’re still looking for magic bullets.”
But there are few signs of relief any time soon. Enten said the chance of gas prices topping $4 a gallon on Election Day has nearly doubled, from 30 percent at the start of September to 59 percent now.
“That is a doubling. This is big, big, big, big, big league problems for Republicans running,” Enten said.
And that could be truly disastrous for the Republican Party.
“These numbers hold. You can say adios amigos goodbye to that Republican majority in the House and maybe the Senate as well, increasingly.”
The Daily Beast has contacted the White House for comment.
