Democrats’ chances of flipping a crucial Senate seat have unexpectedly improved despite the party’s candidate being forced to drop out over sexual abuse allegations, according to CNN data analyst Harry Enten.
Graham Platner, a 41-year-old oyster farmer and military veteran, ended his campaign in Maine just days after a former girlfriend, Jenny Racicot, accused him of forcing her to have sex in 2021.
Platner called the allegation “categorically false,” but dropped out anyway. The accusation came after reports that he had sexted several women during the early years of his marriage.
Democrats must now choose a replacement nominee by July 27 to challenge Republican Sen. Susan Collins.
Enten said the numbers suggest Democrats are actually better positioned without Platner on the ballot.
Prediction market Kalshi shifted from a 50-50 toss-up, on July 2, to giving Democrats a 63-percent chance of winning, on July 12.
According to Enten, that is because “Platner was greatly underperforming the fundamentals in Maine.”
Enten pointed to New York Times/Siena and Fox News polling showing Collins, 73, leading Platner by 1 point even as Democrats held a 12-point advantage on the generic Senate ballot.
“He was already running well, well behind the fundamentals,” Enten said, arguing Platner failed to capitalize on Collins’ declining popularity.
“Susan Collins has been winning Senate elections in Maine since — I did the math — before my 10th birthday. My goodness gracious!" Enten said. “But with Susan Collins’s luck, her popularity with the Maine electorate is actually more on the downward trend than a lot of Republicans would like.”
The same polling showed that Collins, who first took office in 1997, posted a net favorability rating of -3 in June, before the allegations against Platner, whose standing was even worse at -8, while President Donald Trump sat at -23 in Maine.
“But Democrats could not take advantage of that with Platner in the race. Why? Because Platner was even lower,” Enten said. “He was less popular than the already unpopular Susan Collins.”
With Platner gone, Enten believes the race better reflects Maine’s political landscape.
“When you see Trump being this far underwater and Collins being this far underwater, you say Democrats should be winning, but Platner couldn’t take advantage of it,” he said.
“Now that Platner is out of the race, in my mind, Democrats will be able to take advantage of the fundamentals.”
Enten also pointed to history, noting that the president’s party rarely wins Senate seats in states it lost in the previous presidential election.
In 2024, Trump lost Maine to Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, who won 52 percent of the vote.
The last time Republicans won a Senate race in a state they had lost in the previous presidential election was in 2010.
“Susan Collins is going to have to break history to win in Maine in 2026,” he said. “And with Platner out of the race, it makes it much less likely.”
