President Donald Trump’s tanking favorability is starting to drag down Vice President JD Vance, too, new data shows.
CNN’s data guru, Harry Enten, says Vance’s chances of claiming the Republican nomination in 2028 have fallen from a high of 53 percent on Kalshi six months ago to just 37 percent in the aftermath of war with Iran, tying an all-time low.
“Down he goes,” Enten said of Vance’s chances—though he remains the frontrunner, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and right-wing commentator Tucker Carlson in a distant third.
Vance, 41, has long been part of the isolationist and anti-war wing of the MAGA movement.
However, the VP has publicly backed Trump’s war with Iran, which has claimed the lives of at least 13 American service members and has surged gas prices to a national average of over $4 a gallon, the highest they have been since 2022.
Vance reiterated his support for war in an appearance on Benny Johnson’s show this week, telling the right-wing host that Trump was going to continue the war with Iran “for a little while longer” so they can “neuter them for a very, very long time.”
The administration’s messaging on the war has not been consistent since the first strikes on Tehran were carried out on Feb. 28. This week, Trump scolded European allies for not being supportive enough of the very war that Vance says is nearing completion.
This mixed messaging, paired with serious pain at the pump, has sent Trump’s favorability rating tumbling, according to Enten’s aggregation of recent polls.
Enten said the net approval of Trump has fallen from +6 points on Inauguration Day to now being 18 points underwater—figures worse than the Watergate-plagued President Richard Nixon’s second term approval numbers to this point.
“We are talking as low as Death Valley,” Enten said of the data.
Trump’s approval rating is also lower than his approval rating at this point of MAGA 1.0, Enten said. Trump’s approval rating was at -12 at this point in 2018, he said.
“It is not one event that is dragging Donald Trump down,” Enten said, suggesting the lagging numbers are not just because of Iran. “It’s a slew of events that have come together and have continuously dropped his net approval rating.”
The numbers also show Trump is more unpopular with independent voters than any other president in recorded history, according to Enten, including presidents George W. Bush and Nixon. His net approval with that group is an astounding -45.
“No sign of a bottom,” Enten continued.
