A CNN political pundit and Democratic Party whisperer has laid bare the strategic trap currently facing the GOP ahead of the midterms, arguing that lawmakers in competitive areas are trapped in a political bind.
Midterm polling has not looked good so far for the Republicans. Polls have consistently put the Democrats ahead.
The latest New York Times/Siena poll showed Democrats leading Republicans by 11 points in the race for Congress, 50 percent to 39 percent among registered voters. That marks a shift from earlier surveys in the cycle, which typically showed a narrower Democratic edge of just 2 to 5 points.
The gap widened among high-propensity voters, with Democrats holding a 14-point advantage among those “almost certain” or “very likely” to vote.
The polling has left party insiders fearing that the midterms will be a washout for the Republicans.
Discussing the GOP’s poor polling, David Axelrod, the veteran Obama strategist, told CNN that “the problem for Republicans” is their absolute dependency on—and vulnerability to—President Donald Trump, who is currently experiencing his worst approval ratings ever.
According to polling averages from Nate Silver, Trump’s disapproval rating has hit 58.6 percent—surpassing his own first-term peak and President Joe Biden’s high after his disastrous debate with Trump in July 2024. It marks the highest disapproval rating for any president since President George W. Bush left office.
Because of those ratings, Axelrod argued that lawmakers are caught in a severe bind: They cannot survive politically without Trump’s fiercely loyal MAGA base, yet they cannot win general elections with him due to his abysmal support among independents and Democrats.
“Here’s the problem for Republicans. They can’t live in the Republican Party without Donald Trump, and they can’t live outside of the Republican Party with Donald Trump because he’s an epically unpopular president who is popular among his own tribe, and his own tribe is not big enough to win elections,” Axelrod said.
The latest Echelon Insights poll put the Democrats 22 points ahead among independents, while Strength In Numbers/Verasight data from this month put the Democrats at +20 points with independents and non voters.
Polls have also shown Trump’s approval rating dropping among independent voters. The most recent New York Times/Siena poll showed 69 percent of independents disapproved of his job performance, up from 62 percent in a January Times/Siena poll.
Meanwhile, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll put Trump’s approval rating at just 4 percent with Democrats.
But even as Trump’s popularity has taken a hit, polls have largely shown that his support among his MAGA base has held firm.
Earlier this year, one poll put Trump’s support among MAGA voters at 100 percent.
But, Axelrod explained, this is not enough to guarantee Republican success in the midterms.
Ultimately, Axelrod warned that Trump’s strategy of governing strictly for his “tribe” rather than the wider country has left Republicans in swing states and competitive districts in a nearly impossible position.
“Donald Trump has governed to be president of the Republican Party, to be president of MAGA. This country is bigger than that. So if you’re in a swing district, if you’re in a swing state, you’re kind of in a bind here,” Axelrod said.
