Intelligence officials in Europe are raising the alarm that Russian President Vladimir Putin could launch an unprovoked attack on a NATO country to test the military alliance’s resolve.
Michal Koudelka, the head of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service, believes Putin is weighing numerous options, such as launching a drone attack on one of Russia’s neighboring countries or carrying out a small-scale invasion, and that such a provocation could arrive in a matter of “months, not years.”
“It could involve a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, a massive influence campaign,” Koudelka told The Guardian, adding that “a lot of people are doing everything they can to make sure this doesn’t happen.”
Normunds Mežviets, the director general of the VDD, Latvia’s state security service, said they have seen no indications of an imminent attack against a NATO country from Russia, but there are signs that Moscow could be plotting aggressive action in Europe.
“It’s still an open question if they have direct and concrete plans or if it’s just within the context of their overall attempts to spread fear and uncertainty in Western society,” he said.
Any scenario in which Putin attacks a member of the NATO military alliance could have devastating consequences around the world.
Under NATO’s Article 5, an attack against one NATO country is considered an attack against all 32 allied members.
There have been growing fears that Putin could lash out and try to intimidate NATO as he continues to be humiliated by Ukraine. On Sunday, the Moscow region came under intense drone bombardment in what is believed to be Kyiv’s largest single attack on Russia since the war broke out in February 2022.
On Thursday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned parliament that Putin could strike the country or another NATO member with drones and then claim it was an “accident” that does not require a NATO response.
“The aim… will be to weaken NATO’s integrity in general and, above all, to convince… member states that Article 5 is more theoretical than practical,” Tusk said.
It was also previously reported that CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s secret trip to Moscow, via Latvia, was to warn Russia not to launch an unprovoked attack on NATO countries.
The Kremlin confirmed that Ratcliffe held talks with Russian intelligence officials during his August visit, but said the CIA director did not meet with Putin.
Following Ratcliffe’s visit, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed talk that Putin was planning an attack on NATO. “It has nothing to do with reality and nothing to do with the intentions of the Russian Federation,” he said.
On Saturday, Estonia’s foreign minister, Jonatan Vseviov, urged people to “take a breath” and not pay too much attention to “panic on social media” about any attack from Russia.
“If there is reason to fear an attack, rest assured: we will make that clear. Until then, keep calm, carry on and support Ukraine,” he posted on X.
However, Mežviets believes it is good that Europe and the rest of the world are cautious about potential acts of aggression from Putin.
“Before 2022, we constantly warned our Western European partners about the threat from Russia, but most of the time our voices were not listened to,” Mežviets told The Guardian.
“In 2022, the approach of our partners changed. They said it turns out the Balts and the Poles had been right.”
