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Donald Trump Ekes Out One Point Lead Over Kamala Harris in New Poll

The New York Times/Siena College poll shows support for both candidates—Trump at 48 percent and Vice President Harris at 47 percent—within the three-point margin of error.

Former president and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has eked out a narrow one-point lead over Democratic rival Kamala Harris in a new national poll by the New York Times and Siena College.

The survey of nearly 1,700 voters shows support for both candidates—Trump at 48 percent and Vice President Harris at 47 percent—within the three-point margin of error, suggesting a virtual dead heat.

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Breakdowns show factors that could benefit both candidates. A majority of registered voters, 56 percent, said Trump would be a better economic steward, and 51 rated current economic conditions as poor. As well, 60 percent of likely voters said the next holder of the Oval Office should represent a significant change from President Joe Biden—only 25 percent said Harris represented that change, while 53 percent said Trump did.

On the other hand, 63 percent of voters said they were aware of Project 2025, the arch-conservative policy document that would attack abortion and education rights and has extensive ties to Trump officials. The former president has tried to distance himself from the document, but 71 percent of those who said they have heard of Project 2025 believe Trump will try to enact some of its policies.

Harris also has an advantage for potential growth heading into this week's presidential debate: 28 percent of likely voters said they needed to know more about her, while only nine percent said the same of Trump.