TRUMPONOMICS

Goldman Sachs Warns a Trump Win May Slow the Economy

If Trump wins a second term and implements his planned agenda, analysts predict a “hit to growth.”

Goldman Sachs analysts predict another Donald Trump presidency could cool down economic activity with a “hit to growth.” In an analysis released Tuesday, the investment bank said Trump’s strong-armed foreign policies on immigration and tariffs on Chinese imports could cut into America’s gross domestic product (GDP) by as much as a half percentage point in 2025 before it rebounds. “We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse,” they wrote. On the other hand, analysts predicted a neutral effect on GDP, with “small” policy changes, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the White House. Harris-Walz campaign spokesperson Joseph Costello responded to the report in a statement saying the choice “could not be any more clear this November.” He added, “Vice President Harris has a positive vision to strengthen the economy by building up the middle class, cutting taxes and lowering costs for working families and small businesses, and creating opportunities for all Americans to get ahead.” The Trump-Vance team has so far not responded to the report.