GOP Pollster: Assassination Attempt Will Boost Trump Enough to Win the Election
Frank Luntz predicts the assassination attempt might push Trump’s turnout up by 1 or 2 percent.
BBC Politics/X
Republican pollster Frank Luntz predicts that the assassination attempt that left former President Donald Trump bleeding after ripping a chunk of his ear off will likely boost his supporters’ turnout on Election Day.
“I think it’s important that we all recognize that we’re at the breaking point right now,” Luntz said during an interview with BBC politics presenter Laura Kuenssberg on Sunday.
"I think you're going to see an additional one or two per cent to Trump's vote"
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) July 14, 2024
Pollster Frank Luntz says the assassination attempt on Donald Trump won't impact who people vote for but will impact "their likelihood of participating" #BBCLauraK https://t.co/viFZGs0OkG pic.twitter.com/VINVxipDAV
Luntz predicted that the attempt would boost turnout for Trump by 1 to 2 percent, particularly in Pennsylvania, the crucial swing state where the Trump rally took place Saturday.
Trump is currently ahead of President Joe Biden by 2.4 percent in the swing state as of Sunday morning, according to ABC News’ FiveThirtyEight poll tracker. Biden has been struggling to regain his footing and his base nationwide after his disastrous debate performance last month led to a wave of Democrats calling on him to withdraw from the race.
Luntz told Kuenssberg that the newfound intensity of Trump supporters’ motivation to vote could make a difference in the November election, comparing it to the political reaction American Democrats had in 2020 after George Floyd was killed by Minneapolis police officers.
Luntz added that the affect of the Trump shooting on November’s election is important but that the reemergence of political violence on a president, not seen since Ronald Reagan was shot in the 1980s, will have a much greater impact on the future of American politics.
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“I’m thinking about the next generation,” Luntz said. “We need to look beyond traditional partisanship, to our country and its future, and the legacy that we are creating right now for our children and our grandchildren.”
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