JD Vance’s road to the Oval Office is getting a lot more twisted.
A year and a half into Donald Trump’s second term, the vice president is ramping up his presidential platform as 2028 looms, including releasing a memoir about his conversion to Catholicism, embarking on a book tour, and even appearing on hostile programs such as The View.
But Americans are not responding in the way he may have hoped.
On Tuesday, Harry Enten, CNN’s resident data guru, delivered a brutal blow to Vance’s 2028 hopes. Enten pointed out that just three months earlier, Vance was polling at +81 net approval among Republicans, compared with Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s +75.
Now, Rubio has “shot up like a rocket,” Enten said, with Vance polling at +69 favorability and Rubio at +77.
Trump has long pitted Vance, 41, and Rubio, 55, against each other as potential 2028 candidates. He has yet to publicly endorse either, but he is known for asking friends and advisers how they would compare Vance and Rubio.
Trump has also asked people close to him to rank Vance’s performance in negotiating an end to the war with Iran, a conflict he strongly opposed.
Publicly, the war has created distance between non-interventionist Vance and Trump, 80, while Rubio has taken on an even more prominent role in international affairs. Vance’s diminished profile does not appear to be helping him—even, apparently, in his own state.
“What I always say: you go to a home state, the people who know you best, that to me oftentimes gives you an idea of their political future,” said Enten.
In November 2024, the vice president was polling at +5 in Ohio. Now, he sits at -7, according to Enten. “JD Vance: Not so popular in the Buckeye State,” Enten said.
Even prediction markets have responded to Rubio’s rise, with Kalshi putting Vance at a 33 percent chance of becoming the 2028 nominee and Rubio at 28 percent. In January, Rubio stood at a mere 11 percent, while Vance sat comfortably at 50.
“The Iran war happened during that period, and that made JD Vance’s chances tumble, and has made Marco Rubio’s chances go right up,” Enten said. “It’s neck and neck.”
The Daily Beast has reached out to Vance’s representatives for comment.
There have also been other slights against Vance as the presidential election looms. In April, he was omitted from Time magazine’s list of the most influential people of 2026. Rubio, on the other hand, was included and described as someone who could “possibly inherit the Trumpist movement in 2028.”
