A growing wave of Republican retirements is fueling alarm within the GOP, as lawmakers head for the exits ahead of what is predicted to be a brutal midterm cycle.
On Friday, Rep. Sam Graves of Missouri became the 36th Republican House member to announce they will not seek re-election in 2026, saying it was time to “pass the torch” to a new generation. That is compared to 21 House Democrats.
“After considerable reflection, 2026 will be my final year in Congress,” he wrote in an X post. “This wasn’t an easy decision, but it’s the right one. I believe in making room for the next generation. It’s time to pass the torch and allow a new guard of conservative leaders to step forward and chart a path forward for Missourians.”
Graves’ departure pushes the GOP’s retirement wave to its highest level ahead of a midterm in nearly a century, according to an ABC News analysis.
The exodus now exceeds the 34 Republicans who chose not to run again in 2018, when Democrats flipped the House in a 40-seat wave during Trump’s first term.
While some of the lawmakers leaving the House are seeking new positions within the party, the 16 Republicans who are officially retiring include some of the party’s most prominent figures, such as House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington of Texas, as well as veterans-turned-lawmakers like Morgan Luttrell of Texas and Don Bacon of Nebraska.
Of those leaving to pursue higher office, nine Republicans are running for the U.S. Senate, 10 are launching gubernatorial bids, and one is running for state attorney general.
However, the losses don’t stop there. One-time key Trump allies Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Mark Green of Tennessee both left before the end of the term, while Dan Crenshaw was defeated in a Texas primary this month.
The growing retreat comes as Republicans face mounting fears of losing control of both the House and Senate in November, with recent polling and special election results pointing to a voter backlash against the party.
Polls have shown that Democrats are leading on a generic ballot.
Across more than 20 special elections this year, Democrats have outperformed Trump’s 2024 results by 10–14 points in areas from Virginia to Minnesota and Connecticut.
Even in reliably Republican districts, GOP candidates are failing to match his margins: a state House candidate in Oklahoma won by 28 points versus Trump’s 58-point edge in 2024.
Trump also suffered a political blow last week as Democrat Emily Gregory won the Florida State House seat that includes his Mar-a-Lago resort, defeating Republican Jon Maples in District 87.
The results have raised concerns among Republicans that Trump’s backing may no longer guarantee victories in districts once considered safe.
“A year ago, I would have told you we were almost guaranteed to win the Senate,” one GOP operative told Axios last month. “Today, I would have to tell you it’s far less certain.”
Those fears have been compounded recently by the response to Trump’s war in Iran, which has seen at least 13 U.S. service members killed and oil and gas prices soar, with polls showing that a majority of Americans do not back the war, and that Americans are increasingly concerned about the cost of living.
“Republicans are staring down the barrel of the minority party, which is not a fulfilling place to be in federal politics in 2026,” Casey Burgat, the director of the Legislative Affairs Program at George Washington University, told ABC News.
