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Democrats are going to continue to be locked in the minority in the Senate after the election, but they took back control of the House on Tuesday night. Now the opposition will get to wield those coveted gavels, and it will surely put a wrench in President Trump’s agenda. Here, we game out how Congress will exercise its power in the new year.
Even though Republicans held onto the Senate, the dynamics on Capitol Hill will almost certainly change. In the House, the Tea-Party wing is likely to gain more power, since the GOP lost some of its remaining moderates with the retirement of more than 30 senior lawmakers. And in the Senate, Republicans remain wary of ditching the filibuster, so to pass anything in that chamber they’ll still need Democratic support.
Still, don't expect a sudden progressive bonanza in the House. Sure, the party may be able to pass watered-down gun-control measures, some LGBTQ protections and likely a repeal of the latest GOP tax law, but those issues are too contentious for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to ever want to bring to the floor in his chamber. So any bills will likely be punted and will become campaign fodder for Election 2020 when Democrats have a chance to capture the White House.
Oversight Under a Dem House
A Democratic House is set to be a game-changer when it comes to oversight—and the administration knows it. The very idea of Democrats gaining subpoena power over him is partly why Trump had been on the stump so much—the party is eyeing some 52 separate investigations against him.
"The current Congressional leadership hasn't just given the president a free pass on his own profiteering, it's also failed to do basic oversight of programs and officials throughout the administration, from misuse of travel funds by cabinet secretaries to the botched hurricane relief effort in Puerto Rico,” Austin Evers, executive director of watchdog group American Oversight, told The Daily Beast.
That also means looking at Trump’s long-hidden tax returns. Just like there seems to be a Trump tweet for everything, there also seems to be an obscure law for everything. Democrats have their eyes set on a near-century-old statute that enables the chair of the House tax-writing committee to examine any American’s tax returns—and party leaders want to use it to dig into the financial story behind the nation’s first Reality TV president.
“We should expect a new Congress to investigate serious wrongdoing and conflicts of interest at the top of the administration,” Evers continued. “And also to restore the basic checks and balances that are core to the functioning of our Constitutional system.”
Immigration Under a Dem House
The president’s wall remains one of the biggest differences between the two parties, and the president is itching for a battle royale to get it. While GOP leaders have been able to talk him down thus far, Trump has threatened a government shutdown over the issue and he may go to the mat for it.
But the wall is a small part of the broader immigration debate. Democrats have been eager to stop the administration’s child-separation policy and they have many Republican allies in the effort. They also have many Republicans on board with their desire to provide a permanent fix for DREAMERS—or DACA recipients—those children of undocumented workers who were raised on U.S. soil.
Democrats did have 60 votes under former President Barack Obama and they refused to act on comprehensive immigration reform, which wasn’t lost on many Latino voters and immigration advocates who say they’ll be keeping the pressure up on them to finally deliver.
Democrats “certainly need to lead on immigration but must be bold on their policies. Tepid action won’t do,” warns Cesar Vargas, the co-director of the Dream Action Coalition, in an email to The Daily Beast. “Of course, Democratic leadership hasn’t been all that bold but there is great energy there with the new progressive members that could push them in that direction.”
Infrastructure and Trade Under a Dem House
Close to two years ago, Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer thought they could cut a deal with Trump on a massive infrastructure package, but the newly minted president took a hard right turn and spurned bipartisan calls to fix the nation’s ailing infrastructure. This could be one of the few bipartisan policy areas where the two political parties could come together as a sign of good will towards their respective bases.
As for trade policy, the Democratic Party is actually much more aligned with Trump’s trade war than his own Republican Party. But while most Democrats have supported Trump launching a trade war with China, they’ve despised seeing him go after allies in Europe, North America and across the globe. So while the trade war will likely keep going for the foreseeable future, Democrats may be able to pressure the administration into keeping it focused purely at China.
Criminal Justice Under a Dem House
Another bipartisan area where the two parties could have a big kumbaya moment is around criminal-justice reform, which has broad bipartisan support. Even so, advocates are worried that some prominent Republicans have focused more on the issue than the current Democratic leaders in the House. So there’s some chatter that Republicans may act on the issue after the election and before the new Congress is seated in January, which is called a lame duck session, in Washington-speak.
“Right now the Republicans have an incentive to try to pass criminal justice reform in the lame duck in order to show they can get something done and work across party lines,” Inimai Chettiar of Brennan Center told The Daily Beast. “If Democrats take control of the House I worry that this is not high up on [Democratic leaders] agenda.”
Still, like immigration and other top issues for the party’s base, the top Democrats will be hearing an earful from the party’s activists and from the plethora of Democratic White House aspirants in Congress who will be looking to deliver on this and other top issues.
Entitlements Under a Dem House
After Republicans dropped a cool $2.3 trillion on tax cuts, they’re starting to worry about the nation’s deficit and debt. That has some whispering about entitlement reforms, i.e. cuts. That’s why Democrats are also hoping that control of one chamber would enable them to derail any last-ditch GOP attempts to go after Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.
