A humiliating loss in President Donald Trump’s own backyard is shaping up as more than just a local embarrassment—it may be an early warning of a political bloodbath.
Trump suffered a stinging political setback on Tuesday as Democrat Emily Gregory captured the Florida State House seat that includes his Mar-a-Lago resort.
Gregory defeated Republican Jon Maples in the special election for District 87, which covers parts of West Palm Beach, including Trump’s private club, where he still spends many weekends. According to Palm Beach County election records, Trump even voted by mail in the contest, despite his repeated attacks on vote-by-mail and efforts to curtail it nationally.
The race was tight: Gregory won 51 percent to 49 percent, a margin of just over 750 votes.
While Gregory won the district by just 2 points, the result marks a dramatic 21-point swing to the Democrats in just two years of Trump being in the White House. The prior Republican incumbent, Rep. Mike Caruso, won by roughly 19 points in 2024, and Trump carried the district by 11 points the same year 2024.
If every district across the country experienced a uniform 21-point swing compared with the margins the Republican incumbent won in 2024, the Democrats could pick up 70 seats in the House on top of the 215 they currently hold, giving them a landslide majority in the chamber.
That would see Florida Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, who won her seat by a margin of 9.6 points in 2024, lose her seat. Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado, who won her seat by a margin of 11.6 points, would also lose her seat, among many other well-known names.
Current polling does not suggest such a huge swing, but if the results in Trump’s backyard were replicated at a national level it would be one of the worst results for Republicans in a midterm election in recent history.
Historically, the largest House losses include Democrats losing 116 seats in 1894, Republicans losing 77 in 1922, and Democrats losing 72 in 1938, with other notable losses in 1974 and 2010. By comparison, the Democrats’ 41‑seat gain in 2018—the largest in 44 years—was still well below 70.
Gregory’s victory in flipping the district is the latest in a series of special election upsets at the state level for the Republicans, including in a number of red states, since Trump returned to office last year.
In more than 20 state legislative special elections so far this year, Democrats have outpaced Trump’s 2024 performance by 10 to 14 points in areas including northern and central Virginia, New York City, east-central Minnesota, and southeastern Connecticut.
Even in solidly Republican areas, candidates are failing to match Trump’s past margins. In north-central Oklahoma, a GOP state House candidate won by 28 points—well below Trump’s 58-point margin there in 2024—while in Tarrant County, Texas, Democrat Taylor Rehmet upset a Trump-backed GOP state Senate candidate with more than 57 percent of the vote.
The results have raised concerns among Republicans that Trump’s backing may no longer guarantee victories in districts once considered safe.
“A year ago, I would have told you we were almost guaranteed to win the Senate,” one GOP operative told Axios last month. “Today, I would have to tell you it’s far less certain.”
Meanwhile, CNN pollster Harry Enten said Tuesday that the trend in Mar-a-Lago could signal a nationwide shift in the upcoming midterms.
“Historically speaking, special elections have forecasted what will happen in the midterm elections. I went all the way back, since I was in high school, back to the 2005, 2006 cycle, and every single time that a party outperformed the presidential baseline in the next midterm election, what we saw was five out of five times that party went on to win the U.S. House of Representatives,” he said.
“So what is happening right now in Mar-a-Lago is unlikely to stay in Mar-a-Lago. It is likely to expand nationwide and to expand in the midterm elections as well.”
It comes as polls have shown Trump tanking on the issues most important to voters ahead of the 2026 midterms: cost of living and inflation.
In a recent NBC News poll, 48 percent of voters cited inflation and cost of living as the most important issues facing the country, far outweighing any other issue.
In the same poll, 62 percent of voters said they disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation and the cost of living.
The most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll also showed that just 29 percent approve of Trump’s handling of economic policy, the worst rating of either of his presidencies and lower than any economic approval rating recorded by former President Joe Biden.
On the cost of living, Trump fared even worse, with just 25 percent approving of his performance.
The numbers put Trump’s party in a vulnerable position ahead of the midterms, especially as many Democrats, including Gregory, have run campaigns largely on affordability, an issue the president has repeatedly decried as a hoax by Democrats.
“Mar-a-Lago just flipped red to blue, which should have Republicans sweating the midterms,” said Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) in a statement. “If Mar-a-Lago is vulnerable, imagine what’s possible this November.”
Other Democrats are also optimistic about their chances.
“If Democrats can win in Trump’s own backyard, we can win anywhere,” DNC Chair Ken Martin said last night following the result in Florida. “Trump’s own neighbors just sent a crystal clear message. They are furious and ready for change.”
