Donald Trump is not in a rush to invade Cuba, as he believes the communist regime could fall apart within a matter of months, according to a report.
Multiple insiders told Axios that the president believes Cuba’s government could collapse by the summer, and that expectation is influencing future policy toward Havana, including whether to eventually resort to military action.
Trump has frequently suggested that Cuba could be his next target after the war in Iran, but so far he has focused on incremental regime-change measures, including economic sanctions and cutting off oil supplies from Venezuela.
“The best way to describe it is ‘accelerationism,’” one senior administration official told Axios, referring to the fringe philosophy of speeding up a perceived inevitable societal collapse. “But we don’t want to kill off the regime just yet. There’s a method to this. It’s in stages.”
The strategy of waiting for a potential societal collapse in Cuba also gives Trump more time to focus on the deeply unpopular Middle East conflict, which has dragged on for three months.
It has been reported that Senate Republicans have warned Trump against opening a fresh conflict with Cuba while the war in Iran continues.
“Iran’s not finished, and the president is not in a rush,” another senior administration official told Axios. “Trump wants to exhaust all the levers that he can. But at this point, there aren’t as many levers as before.”
A third senior administration official said the U.S. government still has a “pretty deep toolbox” for maintaining pressure on Cuba, including imposing additional sanctions. “More is on the way,” the official added.
The Daily Beast has contacted the White House for comment.
The Trump administration has insisted there are no immediate plans to invade Cuba to force regime change.
However, a senior official told Axios that U.S. Southern Command, which oversees military operations in the Caribbean, recently conducted a multiagency “tabletop” exercise to prepare for potential military action in Cuba.
“Everything is on the table, but no invasion is planned or imminent,” the official said. “When POTUS says go, we’re ready for anything.”
It remains unclear what such military action against Cuba might look like. Politico reported earlier this month that options under consideration ranged from a limited U.S. airstrike as a warning shot to a full-scale invasion.
One Trump adviser told Axios that the president is unlikely to launch an all-out war against Cuba and does not want “boots on the ground for more than 48 hours.”
“It’s a quagmire in the making. This could get messy,” the adviser added.
Another adviser described the president’s approach to Cuba as “classic Trump.”
“Push your enemy off balance. It’s pressure, watch the response, apply more pressure, watch the response, apply more pressure,” the adviser said.
