Iran has called out Donald Trump’s early morning tirades about the war as an attempt to “set up profit-taking,” fueling claims that the president is trying to manipulate the markets.
Hours before Trump dropped yet another Truth Social post on Monday morning—the latest in a pattern of posts issued before the markets open—the speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, wrote on X: “Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator.”
“Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long,” he added. “See something tomorrow? You know the drill.”
As expected, Trump put out a social media blast around 7.30 am on Monday morning, just as he did the week before amid market jitters over the growing energy crisis sparked by the Middle East conflict.
In his latest post, Trump claimed that the U.S. was in “serious discussions” with a “new and more reasonable regime to end our military operations in Iran.”
But he added that if a deal wasn’t reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20 percent of the world’s oil usually flows, there would be hell to pay.
“We will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched,” he declared.
“This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year “Reign of Terror. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
Trump’s mixed messages resulted in oil holding onto earlier gains, while the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq have rebounded after five-week losing streaks.
It wasn’t the first time Trump had commented on the war ahead of the markets’ opening. On March 21, for instance, the threat to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the Tehran regime didn’t open the Strait resulted in oil prices, which were already elevated, spiking further.
But two days later, the president announced on his social media account that the U.S. and Tehran were engaged in talks to end the war and that he had instructed the Pentagon to postpone any strikes for five days.
In turn, the price of crude plunged by more than ten per cent. Stock futures jumped about 2.5 per cent.
However, just before his post, at 6:49 am that day, there was a sudden surge of trading in the futures markets, prompting claims of insider trading.
According to the Financial Times, roughly six thousand oil-trading contracts, worth more than half a billion dollars changed hands.
In the days that followed, Trump issued more conflicting messages about Iran—alternating between diplomacy and confrontation—contributing to continued volatility across oil, equities, and currencies.
During his second term, the president has also been accused of trying to influence the markets with posts relating to China tariffs, Greenland, and big tech.
Iran, meanwhile, has continued to publicly assert that Trump is lying about war negotiations and has mocked the president’s chaotic messaging.
“At one moment, he speaks of negotiations, and shortly afterward, he decides to manage the war,” said an IRGC spokesman in a video message posted to social media.
“This unbalanced and deceitful individual has inflicted extensive damage on the people of the United States, Europe, and countries around the world, especially the countries in West Asia.”
The comments from Iran’s speaker are also notable given that some administration officials have weighed him up as a potential partner who could lead Iran and negotiate with the Trump administration in the war’s next phase.
But he has repeatedly trolled Trump on social media, even posting photos of the “No Kings” rallies that took place over the weekend with the message: “Welcome to the party we started 47 years ago, No kings. This is the people of Iran, and we approve this message.”
Trump began his war on February 28, buoyed by his success in striking Venezuela. But the conflict in Iran has now cost at least 13 American lives and triggered a global energy crisis, with the average national fuel price in the U.S. now at $3.99 a gallon.
And despite Trump claiming “serious negotiations” to end the war are underway, the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, with thousands of American soldiers and marines arriving in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the conflict has rattled some of Trump’s top MAGA allies. Among them is Erik Prince, a Republican mega donor, former U.S. Navy SEAL officer, and founder of the private security firm Blackwater, who counseled the administration “as loud as I could” to not get involved.
“I don’t share the optimism of the administration that there’s going to be a peaceful stop to this,” said Prince, who is viewed in MAGA circles as “the pre-eminent thinker” on the military.
“They will burn it down. And my real concern is that if they try to put boots on the ground and force the Strait of Hormuz, you will see imagery of burning American warships in the next couple of weeks. And I don’t think people are really prepared for that.”
