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Intel Signals Putin on the Verge of a Military Firing Spree

The apparent dismissal of a top Russian commander over war failures may be just the tip of the iceberg.

The apparent dismissal of a top Russian military commander in Ukraine is a sign that more heads could soon roll in the Kremlin’s military ranks, according to a new British government intelligence assessment.

Moscow has likely targeted the commander of the Russian Eastern Group Forces (EGF), Colonel-General Rustam Muradov, given his group’s failure to capture Vuhledar in Donetsk in Ukraine, the British intelligence community assessed.

Muradov’s troops have tried and failed to seize the coal-mining town of Vuhledar in recent weeks, in what Ukrainian officials say has left Russia on the backfoot. Russian leadership has acknowledged that seizing the town, which is near a railway line that has been crucial for Russian supply routes, is strategically important.

“The EGF under Muradov has suffered exceptionally heavy casualties in recent months as its poorly conceived assaults repeatedly failed to capture the Donetsk Oblast town of Vuhledar,” the British intelligence assessment, released Thursday, said.

The apparent firing of Muradov, though, is likely only the beginning, the intelligence assessment notes. The dismissal comes as Russia’s military continues to wage battles in Eastern Ukraine with no significant gains, even as Moscow had hoped to seize all of Donbas by March. But Russia’s ability to make headway on the ground has been faltering. In addition to Vuhledar, Russia has failed to seize Bakhmut, an effort that has come with significant casualties. Kremlin forces have only seized three other towns this year, according to The New York Times.

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Muradov is the most senior Russian military official dismissed this year. It is not clear who will replace him, The Moscow Times reported.

The approach to Vuhledar, which included sending tanks in columns right into ambushes from Ukrainian defenders, suggests that the Russian military has not learned lessons from its earlier mistakes in the war. Ukrainian mines, anti-tank missiles, and artillery destroyed the tanks, The New York Times reported.

Part of the Russians’ problem was placing inexperienced troops in tanks in Vuhledar. Footage from the battlefield of the fight emerged showing Russian fleeing tanks and at least one Russian soldier on fire.

“The operations attracted intense public criticism from across the spectrum of Russian commentators—including Muradov’s own troops,” the British intelligence report notes.

A source in the Eastern Military District told The Moscow Times Muradov was unpopular in the unit.

“Muradov was suspended because he was a mad idiot who was able to… order soldiers to go to certain death. A lot of people complained about him,” the source said.

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Shannon VavraNational Security Reporter

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