Not every freshman member of Congress lands a 60 Minutes interview in her first week on the job, so kudos to New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for propelling herself onto the national scene with such gusto and willingly accepting the label of “radical” when thrust upon her.
That’s great fun for Democrats and especially millennials who love her spunk. But it’s also fodder for right-wing media and their efforts to paint the new Democratic majority as a bunch of tax-and-spend leftie wackos, which is not true.
Taken as a whole, the new freshman class of Democrats moves the caucus right, not left, though you’d never know it by the way the self-identified “Fabulous Four”—Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib, Ayanna Pressley and Ilhan Omar—have dominated the news coverage. Their versatility (Omar is the first Somali American in Congress, Pressley the first black woman elected from Massachusetts), their colorful language (Tlaib laid claim to that) and their social media skills make them exceptional standouts.
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But none of the Fabulous Four flipped a seat that wasn’t already safely Democratic. With Democrats needing to pick up 23 seats to retake control of the House, candidates endorsed by the Progressive caucus flipped just 11 seats. Candidates endorsed by the New Democrats that represent the more moderate faction of the party flipped 33 seats, giving the party its commanding margin. (Those numbers double-count six winners endorsed by both caucuses.)
Contrary to the image of the Democrats uniformly moving left, the Democratic caucus has actually edged somewhat to the right with this infusion of Democrats representing what will remain swing districts.
Progressive economist Jared Bernstein, who attended the new members' retreat last weekend, cautions that the numbers don’t tell the whole story.
“You have to more heavily weight the resonance of the progressive wing at this moment. There is a real hunger among Democrats—and not just the base—an untapped desire for big, bold progressive ideas.”
Bernstein went on: “What’s exciting people is ideas coming out of the progressive wing, it’s not deficit reduction or pay as you go or little tweaks to Obamacare. It’s Medicare for all, guaranteed jobs, aggressive action on climate and free college. It’s not a plausible or legislatable agenda, but this is what excites people. Their numbers are smaller than the moderates, but they have the moment.”
Interestingly, 13 Democrats are members of both the Progressive Caucus and the New Democrats. Five are freshmen. The two caucuses are at their highest number ever, with between 90 and 100 members each, and more overlap possible. Former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke was a member of the New Democrats during the three terms he served in Congress. Yet he ran for the Senate in 2018 as an unapologetic progressive.
The lines may be blurred for now in part because of the singular focus on defeating Donald Trump. “The hope is that these two caucuses can talk to each other and work with each other,” says Jim Kessler with Third Way, a think tank that supports New Democrat ideals and ideas. Big progressive goals like Medicare for all, free public college tuition and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement could all threaten party unity.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s challenge is to keep the factions in her party from fighting among themselves and instead working toward the singular task of defeating President Trump in 2020. Pelosi has proven quite adept at tamping down unrealistic expectations about impeachment or pie-in-the-sky legislation. “It’s a lot easier when you have opposition to Trump as a unifying factor,” says Kessler. “When there’s a Democrat in the Oval Office, that’s when it gets tested.” That’s a problem Democrats would love to have after the 2020 election.
Most of the Democrats aligned with both the progressive and the moderate caucuses represent districts where there is good reason to pay attention to both wings of their party. Take Rep. Veronica Escobar, who just won the seat to replace O’Rourke. She’s progressive on most issues, but she is a free-trade champion, reflecting the business needs of her El Paso district.
Freshmen Rep. Antonio Delgado ran ads saying that he opposed a government takeover of health care, which would align him with the New Democrats. He defeated an incumbent Republican in upstate Schenectady, New York, a swing district, fending off racist-tinged attacks about his past life as a rapper. After the election, he joined the Progressive caucus, and he is on the New Democrats PAC “watch list” of candidates to watch, suggesting that he could join them at a later date. Delgado won his election with endorsements from both caucuses.
It’s an age-old dilemma in politics that moderates and centrists don’t attract the attention that those with more extreme positions do, but the numbers from 2018 indicate they did get the votes they needed in places that are not Democratic strongholds.
Kessler warns against getting too carried away by the social media aspect of public office. “If every member’s goal is to have moments that are viral and attract new followers, that’s not a good thing for the country,” he says.
He expects things to settle down over the next months as members settle into their roles and other voices emerge. “This is the most incredibly talented freshman class since 1974,” the post-Watergate class of reformers and activists. The most educated and least politically experienced, a new meritocracy has arrived on Capitol Hill. The class includes people with military and intelligence backgrounds, business portfolios and social justice activists.
“This is a special class that will make a mark for a long time,” he says, and it’s hard to know at this early date which members will emerge to become figures the country looks to for leadership. It will have a lot to do with their committee assignments, how well they work with others, and whether they do their homework.
Pelosi served in the House for 14 years before she became part of the leadership in 2001. Time moves faster today with social media, but inside the halls of Congress, the traditional barriers remain. As Pelosi likes to put it, “If you can’t get 218 votes, you’re just having a conversation.”
