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It’s just around the corner: the annual therapy session where TV lovers get to cathartically release their rage by screaming into a pillow because their favorite shows and actors didn’t win an Emmy Award.
The Emmy Awards ceremony is one of my favorite nights of the year, not just because I have my finest down throw pillow prepped and ready for Monday night’s telecast—and plenty of pent-up anger to let out—but because I’ve spent my entire life thinking award shows are a suitable hobby to obsess over. Being upset about the nominees and winners when they don’t align with your own taste? That’s part of the fun.
As someone who spent his rare childhood late-night TV passes staying up to watch the Emmys—everyone has an origin story—I’ve also become attuned to voters’ behavior and gotten quite good at anticipating how the night shakes out. And when they throw a wrench and surprise us (Jeff Hiller for Somebody Somewhere! Tatiana Maslany for Orphan Black!), it’s a total thrill. In those situations, I’m never happier to be wrong.
I’m a broken record on still not understanding why the Television Academy doesn’t just ask me to choose the nominees and winners for them.
So in the absence of that, ahead of Monday’s ceremony, here are my predictions for who will win (should you need a cheat sheet to fill out your own ballots), who should win (if you want to sound intelligent talking to your friends), and the snubs I’m still salty about (because I’m nothing if not a grudge-holder).
Drama Series
The Diplomat
The Gilded Age
A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
Paradise
The Pitt
Pluribus
Slow Horses
Your Friends & Neighbors
Will Win: The Pitt…Emmy voters are such normies. Of course they’re gonna vote The Pitt.
Should Win: Pluribus…Why couldn’t the hive mind have infected Emmy voters?
If I Were in Charge Snub: Industry…Though if I were really in charge, then Heated Rivalry would be eligible and nominated here.
Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary
The Bear
Hacks
Margo’s Got Money Troubles
Nobody Wants This
Only Murders in the Building
Shrinking
Widow’s Bay
Will Win: Widow’s Bay…The “cool new kid in town” vibes are powerful.
Should Win: Hacks…But the final season of Hacks was a masterful feat.
If I Were in Charge Snub: The Comeback…I will be taking to the streets, marching against this snub for years.
Limited Series
All Her Fault
The Beast in Me
BEEF
DTF St. Louis
Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette
Will Win: DTF St. Louis…This is one of those “I didn’t get it, but happy for y’all” situations for me, but the momentum is undeniable.
Should Win: Love Story…The hold this series had on us this TV season is a pop-culture moment worth celebrating.
If I Were in Charge Snub: Half Man…Totally wild how voters went from obsessing over Adolescence to basically ignoring Richard Madden’s follow-up.
Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Mark Ruffalo, Task
Rufus Sewell, The Diplomat
Noah Wyle, The Pitt
Will Win: Noah Wyle…Dr. Robby’s mental health crisis?! Never has an Emmy win been more preordained.
Should Win: Mark Ruffalo…As is the Ruffalo way, I was gutted, transfixed, irritated, and moved by this performance, all in equal measure.
If I Were in Charge Snub: Antony Starr, The Boys…Perennially ignored for a powerhouse performance. But since this is my fantasy and I get to thwart eligibility rules, Connor Storrie for Heated Rivalry, duh.
Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age
Chase Infiniti, The Testaments
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus
Zendaya, Euphoria
Will Win: Rhea Seehorn…And I will be shouting “hell yeah!” from my couch.
Should Win: Rhea Seehorn…Your time will come, Keri Russell, I swear!
If I Were in Charge Snub: Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show…To brave the stormy skies of this kooky-as-hell show and reliably land the plane? That’s talent.
Lead Actor in a Comedy
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Wonder Man
Steve Carell, Rooster
Matthew Rhys, Widow’s Bay
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Will Win: Matthew Rhys…Such an easy prediction based on the deserved Widow’s Bay love.
Should Win: Matthew Rhys…C’mon, he’s incredible!
If I Were in Charge Snub: David Alan Grier, St. Denis Medical…He’s the hilarious anchor of this endlessly watchable network sitcom.
Lead Actress in a Comedy
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Elle Fanning, Margo’s Got Money Troubles
Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback
Jean Smart, Hacks
Will Win: Jean Smart…And she deserves it!
Should Win: Lisa Kudrow…But she deserves it, too! Sophie’s Choice!!!
If I Were in Charge Snub: Sabrina Impacciatore, The Paper…One of the most bats--t performances of the year, and TV was better for it.
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