Republicans are increasingly distancing themselves from Donald Trump as a new poll offers another blaring warning about what their ties to the president could cost them at the midterms.
With the election 45 days away, the latest Cook Political Report survey found Democrats leading Republicans in the 37 most competitive House districts, which Trump won in 2024.
Democrats now hold a two-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot while Trump is about 16 points underwater, with most Americans disapproving of his performance.
What’s more, according to the poll, Democrats also hold advantages on the economy, inflation and energy costs—areas that have traditionally been GOP strong suits.
The numbers help explain why some Republicans are suddenly eager to remind voters that they are not, in fact, Donald Trump.
The latest example took place on Thursday, when Florida Rep. María Elvira Salazar dropped a shocking advertisement calling out the president’s ICE crackdown and declaring that “the same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”
“Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far,” Salazar’s ad begins.
“In July, 50 percent of the 50,000 people that were detained had no criminal record. Be careful what your advisers are telling you about immigration policy.”
Other Republicans have also sought to distance themselves from Trump as issues such as the war and affordability continue to bite.
In Iowa, Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks abruptly switched their votes this week to limit Trump’s ability to continue military action in Iran without congressional authorization.
Nunn said he would not support another “open-ended war,” while Miller-Meeks pointed to gas-pump costs.
In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins skipped Trump’s Dallas midterm convention, part of a broader list of vulnerable Republicans who stayed away from the president’s so-called “Trump-a-palooza” extravaganza.
Some GOP candidates have even scrubbed Trump from their websites altogether, including MAGA Republican Andy Barr, who is running for Senator Mitch McConnell’s soon-to-be-vacated Kentucky seat; California Rep. Young Kim; and Ralph Alvarado, a Republican running to represent Kentucky in the House.
None of this means Republicans are abandoning Trump completely, and most remain aligned with him.
But the combination of Democratic gains in his 2024 territory and Republicans increasingly trying to separate themselves from him provides another clear snapshot of the political pressure building around the president ahead of November.
“Six months ago, you would have said the House is in play, but not the Senate. But now you’d have to say both,” veteran GOP consultant Chris Nicholson told the Daily Beast.
“You see the national trends, and when there is a ‘wave’ election, it’s usually one party that wins both chambers.”
Despite the warning signs, Trump has repeatedly urged Republicans in tight races to campaign on his record.
During a tele-rally for Virginia Congressman Rob Whitman on Thursday night, he also insisted that “we’re going to have a tremendous victory on November 3” as he once again urged voters to pretend he was on the ballot.
“You have to do one favor for me, pretend that I’m on the ballot,” he said.
“Because when I’ve been on the ballot, which has been three times, we’ve gotten tremendous turnout, and when I’m not, we don’t get the same turnout.
“I’m just telling you, if you pretend I’m on the ballot, we’re gonna have a tremendous vote.”
