Republicans have already written off this year’s gubernatorial race in Virginia as a lost cause.
With Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears facing weak polling and low fundraising hauls, state and national Republicans are convinced the party will lose the governorship in November—unless something major and unexpected happens, Politico reported.
Fundraising disclosures revealed last week that Spears’ opponent, former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, had more than three times as much cash on hand, or $15.2 million to Spears’ $4.5 million.
The problem isn’t likely to improve anytime soon, because fundraising in years that are neither a presidential election year nor a midterm year tends to be a self-reinforcing cycle, according to Politico. Donors and party committees are wary of giving to candidates who seem to be struggling.
Multiple sources also told Politico that Spears herself had exacerbated the problem by failing to reach out to some of the state’s most reliable donors and top political figures, including President Donald Trump’s campaign co-manager, Chris LaCivita.
Sears and Trump met privately at the White House earlier this year, but the president has not endorsed her because she criticized him in between his two terms, according to Politico.
The lieutenant governor’s weak chances have put Republicans in a quandary because they can’t abandon her completely, but they don’t want to sink significant resources into what they see as a losing race.
As a point of comparison, four years ago, the Republican Governors Association (RGA) funneled $10.7 million to current Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s winning campaign.
Virginia law allows governors to only serve one term, and Youngkin all but assured Sears would succeed him as the Republican nominee. But now, the RGA has given Sears just $500,000 and is wary of offering anything more, according to Politico.
Party leaders are convinced they have a better chance in New Jersey, the only other state holding a gubernatorial election this year. They prefer to focus on that race and save up for 2026, when a whopping 36 gubernatorial races will be held.
Back in Virginia, some leading Republicans blame Youngkin—who appears to be gearing up for a presidential run—for not leaving the state party in a better position, according to Politico.
But Republicans already faced an uphill battle in the state, which Trump has never won. State Attorney General Jason Miyares—who appears to be one of the few incumbent Republicans poised to win in November—decided not to run for governor after Trump was re-elected.
Earlier this year, LaCivita hosted a fundraiser for Miyares and Miyares alone. In a highly unusual twist, Miyares has raised more money than Virginia’s Republican candidates for governor and lieutenant governor combined.
