Republicans are bracing for a blue wave at the midterms, as a result of President Donald Trump’s manic leadership.
For months, the 80-year-old has insisted he could manage the Iran conflict on his own terms: hit hard, force a deal, and keep the United States out of another long Middle East war.
Instead, the U.S. and Iran are escalating strikes, more American service members are dead, gas prices are climbing again, and Republicans working to preserve their congressional majorities are contemplating a scenario they once viewed as unthinkable.
“We’re preparing for the bottom to fall out,” a GOP operative working on midterm races told Politico’s Playbook. The operative said contests in Iowa, Alaska and Ohio, along with House districts Trump carried by double digits in 2024, are now firmly in play. “Republicans are running out of runway here to improve their political fortunes before November,” the operative said.
Indeed, Trump campaigned on the U.S. turning away from more foreign wars. As soon as he got into the White House, he ditched this playbook, ignored kitchen table issues, and plunged the country into a conflict that was not Congressionally approved and which does not have public support.
In Iowa, Democratic Senate candidate state Representative Josh Turek has made the war a centerpiece of his campaign. “Everywhere I’m going, it doesn’t matter, urban or rural areas, people are telling me they’re struggling just to keep food on the table, a roof above their head, and now with this unnecessary war in Iran, we’re looking at being able to afford gas,” he told Playbook.
Battleground Republicans like Representative Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Representative Tom Barrett of Michigan have been boxed into a corner, forced to toe the party line on the war while convincing frustrated voters that position isn’t at odds with rising prices.
Official Republican channels are pushing back hard on the doom narrative. The Republican National Committee’s Natalie Baldassarre told Playbook that Trump’s “‘Peace through Strength’ foreign policy has been effective in preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon,” while the National Republican Congressional Committee’s Mike Marinella added that Democrats “spent a decade bankrolling the regime and made the world more dangerous for Americans and safer for terrorists.”
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly pointed to Trump’s “record of success in making our homeland safer and families more prosperous,” accusing Democrats of pushing “far-left, radical ideas.”
But the anxiety is creeping into Trump’s own orbit. A person close to the White House described the administration’s handling of the war as badly mismanaged and increasingly driven by the president’s refusal to acknowledge a loss. “They don’t have a plan here,” the person said, warning a ground invasion could produce a 15-year war and “runs the risk of ruining his second term. This is a classic escalation trap.”
New polling from Politico shows even Trump’s core supporters are souring. Just 37 percent of his MAGA base now says the U.S. should continue its involvement in Iran even if it raises costs, down 13 points from May, when half of MAGA voters said continued involvement was worth it.
