Republicans in Florida are growing uneasy as polling shows the deep red state is in play for Democrats in key races.
Former Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo says the party is “bracing for the worst” in the adopted home state of President Donald Trump, which he won by 13 points in 2024.
Curbelo, a two-term Republican congressman who lost his House seat during a blue wave that rocked Republicans in the midterm election of Trump’s first term, tells Politico that he sees similarities to eight years ago.
“It’s definitely 2018 vibes out there,” he said. “A lot of former colleagues are bracing for the worst.”
Curbelo, 46, does not expect Florida Republicans to be wiped out—but the situation is growing grimmer by the day for his party.
“I still bet on Republicans holding the governor’s mansion, but it’s going to be more competitive than people could have anticipated just a few months ago,” he said.
Even former congressman Matt Gaetz’s father, Republican state Sen. Don Gaetz, is expressing concern.
“Anybody who is on the ballot ought to be concerned if they have a Democratic opponent,” he told Politico.
Decision Desk HQ moved the Florida gubernatorial race—between the ultra-MAGA Rep. Byron Donalds, who scored an early endorsement from Trump, and Democrat David Jolly—to be a “toss-up” this week. That comes a month after the Cook Political Report moved the race from “solidly Republican” to “lean Republican,” highlighting how fast things are deteriorating for the GOP.
Such a shift would have been inconceivable last January, when Trump returned to Washington after sweeping every swing state and winning Florida by nearly 1.5 million votes.
Trump officially endorsed Donalds to be Florida’s next governor on Feb. 20, 2025—when a YouGov poll pegged Trump’s approval rating at 50 percent. Now, amid war with Iran and a gallon of gas costing $4.42 in Florida, the latest YouGov survey puts his approval at just 33 percent.
In recent weeks, Florida Republicans have shown both subtle and not-so-subtle distancing from Trump and MAGA. Donalds pulled some photos and references to Trump that were plastered across his campaign website. He also cut down the mentions of Trump’s endorsements, even as a campaign official argues that Trump’s endorsement is worth its weight in gold.
Florida Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar was much more explicit. The Miami Republican, who represents a majority-Hispanic district, dropped a blistering campaign ad she filmed at the White House. The Trump-endorsed lawmaker called out Trump’s inhumane migrant crackdown as “going too far.”
Whether momentum translates to actual wins for Democrats in a state as red as Florida remains to be seen. Politicos have pointed to Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’ redistricting—meant to win the GOP more seats in Congress—as potentially backfiring by spreading Republican votes too thin, something Florida Politics publisher Peter Schorsch has said is a “Dummymander.”
“I don’t think we are dead yet,” a GOP county chair in Florida told Politico. “We are not on life support. But we are hemorrhaging. The question is: Do we stop the bleeding now, or wait until we reach critical conditions?”
