Carlos Alcaraz’s chances of winning the U.S. Open men’s singles tournament are dropping after he appeared “rusty” in his return to competition this week.
The Spaniard has seen his stock dip nine percentage points on Polymarket after he and Serena Williams were knocked out in the mixed doubles quarterfinals on Tuesday. Pundits noted the 23-year-old was not fully his dominant self after four months off the court.
Alcaraz remains the favorite to win the singles tournament after the world number one, Jannik Sinner, withdrew due to a right knee injury, but the gap has shrunk. Alcaraz defeated Sinner in the final of the 2025 edition of the tournament.
Polymarket now pegs Alcaraz at 26 percent to win the tournament, closely followed by Germany’s Alexander Zverev at 22 percent. Zverev, 29, was given less than a five percent chance of winning the tournament on July 1. Alcaraz’s odds were as high as 35 percent on Saturday.
The favorites are followed by Novak Djokovic in third at 11 percent, then Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils, each given an eight percent chance of winning.
Alcaraz went 133 days without competing. He suffered a right wrist injury in the first round of the Barcelona Open in April, played through the injury to win his first-round match, then withdrew the next day after doctors diagnosed him with tenosynovitis.
Alcaraz’s absence meant he missed the French Open, which he won the previous two years, and Wimbledon, which he won in 2023 and 2024.
The Associated Press writes that Alcaraz was “clearly rusty” in his return to action this week with the 44-year-old Williams, who at times “carried” the young star.
Even Alcaraz conceded he is not fully back up to speed.
“I think everybody could see: I double-faulted on the first point,” he said Tuesday. “I was really, really nervous. I was out for four months ... I almost forget how it feels.”
Alcaraz is the No. 2 seed and will face Russia’s Roman Safiullin when the main singles draw begins this weekend.
