A top MAGA pollster is warning that President Donald Trump’s base is shrinking and that it will have disastrous impacts on Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.
Republicans are largely expected to lose control of the House come November, and some polls have shown that the Senate may also be in play for the Democrats as well.
In addition to that, Rich Baris of Big Data Polls, a pro-Trump pollster, is warning that Trump’s MAGA base is falling apart.
“We’ve got affordability. There’s economic things to consider: Most people just care about how much money they have in their wallet at the end of the month,” host of The Charlie Kirk Show Andrew Kolvet said.
“Is there any good news for the midterms?” the host asked.
“Well, you said stay positive. What am I positive? Look, I’m just not,” Baris laughed.
“I tried to scream and yell for almost a year now about how to fix 2026. There is still roughly an 18% chance historically that Republicans could turn it around,” he warned.
Kolvet then pointed to a generic poll that had Democrats with a 7-point lead over Republicans in a generic 2026 Congressional ballot in February. Kolvet noted that the margin had recently narrowed, but Baris quickly refuted that, explaining what he had seen from his own polling.
“We’re also seeing a bit of a widening out again,” Baris said, adding that Republicans “have to chase the vote” with Trump not on the ballot this election, as Republicans have enjoyed higher turnout from low-propensity voters only when Trump is on the ballot.
Kolvet then sarcastically asked, “So Harry Enten, your favorite, had a segment on CNN basically saying 90% of the Republican base support the war in Iran. What are you seeing on that front?”
“Look, you know, first of all, you know, it’s funny somebody like Harry Enten would suddenly be an authority on the MAGA base or the polls that he chooses to cherry-pick,” Baris complained, before touting himself saying “We may be the one who’s been polling MAGA as asking people, are you or are you not MAGA, longer than anybody else.”
He still, however, contends that MAGA has shrunk since Trump’s 2024 win, in which he won the popular vote by about 1.5 percent over former Vice President Kamala Harris and won key swing states by an average of 3.5 percent.
“The fact is MAGA has shrunk. So, you know, I can get into certain numbers, but we were trying to stay positive today, right?” he said.
“You know, there’s a purification through subtraction going on, which I think is important for people to understand. And the people that have been subtracted are what I’m calling, like, you know, all the winning parts. Right?” he continued. “The younger voters, the younger, especially Black men, Hispanics, right?”
Baris then noted that Trump has really lost support with younger women in recent weeks.
“They have slipped the most in our polling,” he said. “Some of it had to deal with Epstein. Some of the war. They don’t like the war.”
White House spokesperson Olivia Wales disputed Baris’s assessment in a statement to the Daily Beast, calling Trump the “unequivocal leader of the Republican party, he is committed to maintaining Republicans’ majority in Congress to continue delivering wins for the American people.”
“President Trump was elected with a resounding mandate to reverse disastrous Biden-era policies and unleash a new era of prosperity for our country – and it’s clear that he has delivered for Americans with a secure border, cooling inflation, working-class tax cuts, new trade deals, new drug pricing deals, and trillions in investments," Wales’s statement continued. “The United States is once again respected thanks to President Trump’s peace-through-strength, America First policies, and bold actions. The White House is keen to tout these victories in the months ahead as we continue to work to Make America Great Again.”
