Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire to win a Nobel Peace Prize, but his Canadian counterpart Mark Carney has now emerged as an unlikely favorite in the race.
The Canadian prime minister has surged ahead of Trump in at least one prediction market for the 2026 prize, giving the U.S. president a “near-zero” chance of winning the long-coveted award following his war in Iran.
According to betting and prediction-market site Covers.com, which tracks prices on Kalshi, Carney was trading at a 14 percent implied chance on Monday, ahead of humanitarian agencies such as Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms at 13 percent and Doctors Without Borders at 10 percent.
“Donald Trump was the favorite to win last year, but given what’s happened this year in Iran we can’t see that happening again,” Covers.com wrote in its latest update.
“He may well have decent odds at sports books, but Kalshi gives a more realistic representation of his chance of winning the prize in 2026. That chance is near-zero.”
The move comes amid the increasingly bitter trade war between America and its northern neighbor.
The Trump administration has imposed 50 percent tariffs on some Canadian goods and announced additional restrictions on Canadian products and companies seeking U.S. government contracts.
Trump has also lobbed insults at Carney, calling him “governor” instead of prime minister, and pushing to rename Lake Ontario as “Lake America.”
Carney has responded with a less incendiary approach, presenting Canada as a sovereign middle power willing to resist American economic pressure, while leaving the door open to negotiations.
Last week, he was also photographed scrolling through his phone as Trump delivered a speech hailing America’s dominance at the United Nations General Assembly.
“Stop doing memes, stop throwing shade, stop trying to be tough,” Carney told the administration through reporters as the trade war ramped up earlier this month.
Trump’s fixation on the Nobel Peace Prize is hardly new, with the president spending much of last year reflecting on how he deserved the prize thanks to the numerous wars he claims to have “solved.”
But the committee announced in October that last year’s award would go to Venezuelan democracy advocate and opposition leader María Corina Machado, leaving his allies to soothe his disappointment by providing a host of other consolation prizes.
For instance, in October, days after his Nobel snub, the Richard Nixon Foundation gave Trump their Architect of Peace Award for his ongoing efforts.
FIFA President Gianni Infantino went even further, presenting Trump with an award made up just for him: the inaugural “FIFA Peace Prize”.
The silver lining for the president is that prediction markets are hardly a crystal ball.
Betting sites acknowledge that the Nobel market is highly volatile, with prices driven by news cycles, political developments and traders’ expectations—not inside information from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
The uncertainty is also underscored by another market: Polymarket, for example, has Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms ahead of Carney.
