Donald Trump is zeroing in on a deal with Iran that could potentially see his war with the repressive Middle Eastern conflict stretch on indefinitely.
Top administration officials told Axios Wednesday that the White House believes it is now closer to an agreement with the Islamic Republic than at any other time since Trump launched his campaign on Feb. 28.
A provisional deal apparently includes Iran “committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment.” The U.S. would lift sanctions against the regime and release billions of dollars worth of otherwise frozen assets in return.
Both sides would then commit to facilitating the transport of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital naval corridor in the region that Iran has effectively shuttered since the conflict began, sending global energy prices soaring.
But Axios writes that “many of the terms laid out in the memo would be contingent on a final agreement being reached.” This leaves open “the possibility of renewed war,” or “an extended limbo in which the hot war has stopped but nothing is truly resolved.”
Those concerns run deep, given officials also told Axios they believe “the Iranian leadership is divided” after successive U.S. and Israeli attacks eliminated many of the regime’s most senior figures.
It may therefore “be hard to forge consensus across the different factions” that remain, with many on the U.S. side of talks “skeptical that even an initial deal will be reached.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed those sentiments Tuesday, stating the situation remains “highly complex and technical,” and bizarrely quoting hip-hop outfit Cypress Hill to suggest many among the top Iranian leadership are “insane in the brain.”
The pressure on Trump to lock something down is mounting on several fronts. U.S. gas prices are edging toward $5 a gallon, and the president heads to Beijing next week, where Xi Jinping is expected to press him on reopening the strait.
Hawks in Trump’s own party, meanwhile, have urged him to scrap diplomacy and resume bombing. Senator Lindsey Graham, the loudest voice in that camp, called Monday for a “big, strong, painful and short” retaliation after Iran struck the United Arab Emirates, arguing Tehran had clearly violated the ceasefire.
The Daily Beast has contacted the White House for comment on this story.
