A set of polls shows Democratic candidates making dramatic gains in parts of the U.S. that previously helped elect President Donald Trump by double digits.
The internal polling is a warning sign for the president, 80, and Republicans, who are furiously scrambling to hold onto the House majority, where they already have a razor-thin margin.
Even if Democrats are unsuccessful in flipping districts in Trump country, their ability to largely close the gap in deep red parts of the U.S. offers a surge of hope to Democrats praying for a blue wave come November.
An internal poll conducted in Arizona’s second congressional district showed Democrat Jonathan Nez closing in on GOP Rep. Eli Crane in the district Trump won by 15 points in 2024.
The poll reported by the National Journal’s Hotline shows Nez at 41 percent, statistically tied with Crane’s 44 percent. Nine percent of voters were undecided.
The Republican incumbent won his reelection bid in 2024 by 9 points against Nez, but polling shows Trump underwater in the district, with 56 percent disapproving of the president and 46 percent approving, as the pair head toward a rematch in November.
While the president won the Arizona district by 15 points less than two years ago, the Democratic House campaign arm included Nez as one of its top candidates to flip the district from red to blue back in February and has been dedicating resources to his campaign.
Meanwhile, fly across the country to update New York, and another internal poll shows a Democrat within striking distance in another district that Trump won in 2024 by 20 points.
Democratic candidate Blake Gendebien is facing off against Republican Anthony Constantino for the seat held by outgoing GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik, who won her reelection in New York’s 21st congressional district by 24 points less than two years ago.
But internal polling conducted for Gendebien’s campaign and shared with Politico shows that he’s trailing Trump-backed Constantino by just one point. Constantino is at 45 percent while Gendebien is at 44 percent, with 11 percent of voters undecided.
Even if the district remains in GOP hands, the rapidly narrowing gap gives Democrats growing confidence in their ability to flip districts where Republicans won on tighter margins as they zero in on taking back the majority.
Apart from the set of internal polls giving Democrats a fighting chance in Trump districts, a new poll by the House Majority PAC found Democratic candidate Paige Cognetti leading Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan in Pennsylvania’s 8th congressional district.
In a head-to-head matchup, Cognetti was polling at 47 percent to Bresnahan’s 45 percent in what is considered one of the most competitive districts in the country.
The president won the swing district by more than eight points in 2024 while the congressional race remained closer with Bresnahan flipping the district from blue to red by 1.5 points.
Trump visited the state earlier this week, where he delivered a campaign-style speech in the nearby 7th congressional district.
The president has played a key role in helping to put multiple GOP candidates over the finish line with his endorsements in the primaries, but the general election could pose other challenges for Republicans if the president’s approval does not pick up in the next four months.
Earlier this week, Trump delivered another setback to Republicans fighting for their political lives when he threw Congress into chaos by refusing to sign a bipartisan housing bill.
GOP lawmakers had hoped to tout the legislation on the campaign trail, as Americans struggle with high costs. But instead, the president demanded that Republicans pass his voting bill despite it not having the necessary votes.
