Nine gambling accounts have won in excess of $2.4 million across more than 80 bets on action taken by the U.S. military, raising questions about insider trading.
The White House wrote to staff in March, reminding them that insider trading is a federal offense after a flurry of bets on major incidents, including the U.S. capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, who was taken to the U.S. to face narco terrorism and drug trafficking charges.
Now, a new analysis from data company Bubblemaps found that bets from nine anonymous accounts had a 98 percent win rate, staking on key moments in the war with Iran, including the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, when a ceasefire would be called, and when the bombardment would first begin.
“This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far,” Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO Nicolas Vaiman told 60 Minutes. “Luck alone cannot explain those numbers.”
Polymarket enables people to place bets on a broad range of real-world future outcomes, from wars to the weather, but it has raised concerns that officials could be using non-public information to gain an advantage.
In a statement to 60 Minutes, Polymarket said, “When our systems identify suspicious activity, we act—including through referrals to law enforcement and cooperation with investigations. The statement added that “insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket, and those who attempt it will be identified.”
In the March email, obtained by CBS, the White House told staff that “Recent press reports have raised concerns about government officials using nonpublic government information to place wagers on online prediction markets, such as Kalshi or Polymarket.”
It added that it is a “criminal offense for anyone to use nonpublic information to buy or sell these contracts,” adding that “government ethics regulations prohibit the use of nonpublic information for the private benefit of an employee or any other third party.”
“All White House employees are reminded that the misuse of nonpublic information by government employees for financial benefit is a very serious offense and will not be tolerated.”
Bubblemap’s head of investigations, granted anonymity to go only by the name Deebs, said that many people are involved in planning and executing a military operation, and that privileged information can leak to friends and family.
“And that means that there are, consequently, a lot of potential insiders,” said Deebs.
Previous bets with curious timing have also been placed on oil prices, which have fluctuated extensively due to the conflicts in Venezuela and Iran.
One incident saw an anonymous user called “Magamyman” earn more than $553,000 following Khamenei’s death.
Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke was indicted in April for allegedly using a VPN to place a bet on the capture of Maduro. He pleaded not guilty to allegations from the Justice Department that he made $400,000 after staking around $34,000.
Among Polymarket’s investors is President Donald Trump’s oldest son, Donald Trump Jr., who uses his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates insider trading and fraud in the U.S. “This is a new kind of insider trading,” former employee Rob Schwartz, now a partner at law firm Morgan Lewis, told 60 Minutes.
In a statement to the Daily Beast, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said, “All federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of nonpublic information for financial benefit. However, any implication that administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
