PROBLEMA

Trump Makes Big Gains With Historically Dem-Leaning Latinos

A new poll shows Kamala Harris has the smallest lead among this group of any Democratic nominee in over a decade.

Kamala Harris may have a Latino voter problem, especially among men.

Her lead over Donald Trump among Latino voters has fallen to a 12-year low for the Democratic Party's presidential nominee, a new NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll shows. Harris has the support of 54 percent of registered Latino voters nationwide, compared to Trump with 40 percent. The remaining share said they were unsure or wouldn’t vote.

Latino Americans have traditionally backed Democrats by wide margins, and still favor Harris’ party. But Trump has made significant inroads, in spite of his racist comments about immigrants, who he has called “animals” and “rapists.” (The ex-president once exclaimed, “I love Hispanics!” in a post touting Trump Tower’s taco bowls.)

But Trump seems to have a special sauce that has helped him outperform other Republican presidential candidates. Latino Trump fans, like Trump fans in general, are especially pleased by the strength he projects on the economy and the border, according to the poll.

Latino voters are expected to make up about 15 percent of the electorate in November, a share that is rapidly growing. The vice president’s lead with this group is bigger than Joe Biden’s was earlier this election cycle, although much smaller than that of the Democratic candidates in 2020, 2016 and 2012, NBC News reported. In those years, polls found the gap was 36 points, 50 points, and 39 points, respectively.

Democrats’ margin among Latino voters has dwindled each election year, according to exit polling. Barack Obama won the group by 44 points in 2012, Hillary Clinton by 38 points in 2016 and Biden by 33 points in 2020.

Much of Trump’s strength with Latino voters comes from men, especially those under 50 without college degrees. While both candidates get 47 percent support from Latino men as a whole, those under 50 favor Trump over Harris, 51 percent to 42 percent; and those without college degrees prefer Trump 51 percent to 38 percent, the poll shows.

Harris, however, has a 26-point lead among Latina women.

The poll, which has a margin of error of 3.1 points, also finds that more Latino voters think the Democratic Party is better than the Republican Party when it comes to addressing Hispanic communities’ concerns, but the share who think the Democratic Party shares their values has dropped since 2022.

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