Donald Trump’s aggressive immigration agenda could cost the Republicans the midterm elections, according to a new poll.
November’s midterms will determine control of Congress, with Republicans aiming to keep their majorities in both chambers while Democrats look to flip at least one. But fresh data suggests immigration policy—one of Trump’s strongest issues in 2024—may now be a liability for his party.
Republican lawmakers have largely backed the president’s aggressive enforcement strategy, including expanded deportations.
However, the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey, conducted April 15–20 among 4,557 U.S. adults, finds 52 percent of Americans say they are less likely to support a candidate who endorses Trump’s deportation approach, compared with 42 percent who say they are more likely.
The gap is wider among independents, with 57 percent preferring candidates who oppose the policy and just 32 percent favoring those who support it.
The poll also shows a drop in approval for Trump’s handling of immigration—from 50 percent in the weeks after his January 2025 inauguration to 40 percent now—following the use of masked federal agents and two U.S. citizens being killed during enforcement operations linked to the crackdown in Minnesota.
“People were being pulled out of cars, a priest shot with pepper balls, and Americans killed before our eyes. I don’t think those images are going to go away anytime soon,” Sarah Pierce, director of social policy for Third Way, told Reuters.
The Daily Beast has contacted the White House for comment.
The poll is a warning sign for the Republicans ahead of the midterms, with polls already showing Democrats leading Republicans.
Enforcement intensity appears to have eased slightly, with Immigration and Customs Enforcement averaging just over 1,000 arrests a day in early March, down from nearly 1,300 in December, though still above early 2025 levels.
Officials have also told Axios the Trump administration is moving away from the over-the-top approach to promoting its hardline immigration and deportation policies that defined the Kristi Noem era, with the White House trying to stop Republicans from using the term “mass deportations,” as the phrase had become so politically toxic with voters.
“There was a priority on people seeing the enforcement actions,” the former DHS official told Axios. “Some of the law enforcement actions you see, even if they’re hardened criminals, it can be hard optics. They can be hard to stomach when you’re seeing really physical altercations.”
“You have the base that is demanding this action, and you need to get them out for the midterms. And if they’re not seeing it, to them, it’s not happening.”
Still, only one in four respondents in the poll said they would describe current efforts to detain immigrants as less aggressive than a month ago.
Overall, 70 percent of Americans would view a less aggressive approach to detentions positively, and 76 percent support legal pathways for undocumented migrants without criminal records.
However, there is still appetite for some immigration restrictions.
Most Americans continue to back efforts to curb illegal immigration, with 84 percent saying securing the border is at least somewhat important and 87 percent saying enforcement of immigration laws is a priority.
But that hasn’t stopped some Republicans from pushing for a softer approach. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, a Florida Republican, has backed legislation to grant legal status to certain undocumented immigrants, arguing it “respects Trump’s agenda” while strengthening border security.
“I’m very concerned about what’s happening within the party with immigration,” she said on Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade Show.
