Republican Rep. Thomas Massie appears to be leading in the polls in the final stretch before his GOP primary despite President Donald Trump’s repeated attacks.
There is no Republican in Congress that the president appears to hate more than the Kentucky lawmaker, who has been at times a vocal critic of Trump and a leader in releasing the Epstein files.
Trump even traveled to Massie’s district last month to campaign against Massie, but according to a new poll, the incumbent Republican remains the leader in his race with just over a month to go.
The poll by Quantus Insights from Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, released on Thursday, shows Massie ahead by nine points with more than 46 percent of support compared to Trump-backed Ed Gallrein with more than 37 percent.
Another 14 percent of those polled said they were undecided, meaning their choice could ultimately decide the primary, which takes place on May 19.
It’s a major test of Trump’s endorsement power as the president has raged against Massie for months.
“Our polling shows Thomas Massie with a clear advantage in KY-4. He has the stronger ballot position, the deeper reservoir of prior support, and a district electorate that appears more open to independence than simple allegiance politics,” Quantus Insights wrote.
While having a less than 10-point lead is not ideal for an incumbent, they noted it’s still a strong position in a two-candidate race.
Massie has been walking a tightrope in deep red MAGA country. He’s been quick to highlight where he has been completely in lockstep with the president when it comes to some policy.
But he has also rebelled against the administration on a series of issues, from his bipartisan push to release the full Epstein files to his refusal to vote for legislation that adds to the national debt.
However, in the red state that also sent another Republican outlier, Sen. Rand Paul, to Congress and managed to elect a Democratic governor twice, Massie remains the candidate to beat.
The poll showed he has a net positive approval rating with more than 51 percent viewing him favorably, compared to the 46 percent who have an unfavorable view of him. Just over two percent said they couldn’t say.
Meanwhile, more than 39 percent had a favorable view of Gallrein, while more than 38 percent had an unfavorable view of him. A whopping nearly 22 percent said they did not know, showing he remains largely unknown.
When likely voters were asked about their candidate preference, nearly 50 percent said they wanted an independent one who stands for his principles, while just 37 percent wanted one who strongly supports Trump.
“It suggests this is not an electorate looking simply for obedience or alignment. It is an electorate that still has room for a self-willed, independent conservative and that is precisely the identity Massie has cultivated for years,” Quantus Insights said.
That could prove to be a challenge for Gallrein, who has been running as a close ally of the president and appeared with him at an event in the district on March 11.
During the appearance, Trump went on a long tirade against Massie before bringing Gallrein to the stage to deliver some brief remarks.
After his appearance with the president, the betting markets actually gave Massie an additional boost on the likelihood of him winning his primary.
Meanwhile, a separate Big Data Poll this week also showed Massie in the lead, though by a smaller margin. It had the Kentucky lawmaker with more than 52 percent among registered Republican likely primary voters. Gallrein had more than 47 percent support.
“Kentucky House District 4 includes the Cincinnati, Kentucky burbs in the North, Appalachia and exurban Louisville,” polling director Rich Baris said. “It’s known for its independent streak, and it’s very clear why just from interviews with registered Republicans.”
It found that undecided voters were breaking for Massie, but his lead has been shrinking as the race goes.
Speaking at his first campaign event in February, Massie told attendees that his internal polling showed him with a 17-point lead on Gallrein, who launched his bid two months ago.
Massie has spent more than $5 million on ads as of early April, according to tracking by AdImpact. Gallrein spent more than $3 million. At the same time, outside groups have spent more than $2.6 million on ads attacking the outspoken GOP lawmaker.
