Donald Trump has received a huge warning sign that the Democrats are going to crush the GOP in the midterm elections.
NBC News’ polling average, released Friday, found that Democrats lead Republicans by 9 percentage points, 52 percent to 43 percent, among likely voters when asked who they would prefer to control Congress.
The Democrats’ near-double-digit lead is the largest yet in the 2026 midterm cycle and arrived after Labor Day—a period considered the crucial run-up as most voters become more engaged in the Nov. 3 nationwide elections.
The polling suggests that Trump is on course to spend his final two years in office with Democrats controlling Congress, putting him at risk of becoming a lame-duck president facing articles of impeachment.
Last February, soon after Trump reentered the White House, Democrats and Republicans were tied in terms of who might end up controlling the House and Senate. However, following a year of disastrous Trump policies, the GOP is now expected to suffer an electoral wipeout in the midterms.
In particular, voters have completely turned against Trump’s handling of the key issue of the economy, with his policies exacerbating the financial hardships of tens of millions of Americans.
For instance, an NBC News Decision Desk Poll in April 2025 found that 40 percent of American adults approved of Trump’s handling of inflation and the cost of living, while 60 percent disapproved.
By April 2026, when Trump’s war in Iran had driven up gas prices, the president’s approval rating on the key issues had plummeted to 32 percent, with 68 percent disapproving.
Overall, Trump’s average approval rating has slipped to a joint all-time low of 39 percent, with 59 percent disapproving, according to NBC News. Trump’s approval rating was at 50 percent when his second term started last January.
The decline can be attributed to Trump losing the support of independent voters—a crucial demographic in any election—as well as Republicans.
In the first six months of his second term, Trump was recording mid-to-high 80s approval ratings among Republicans. This has since dropped to 79 percent in NBC News’ average.
Among independents, Trump’s approval rating has plummeted to just 26 percent.
NBC News said its polling averages are designed to “measure changes in public opinion over time,” rather than focus on any single survey’s result.
“They combine national polls using a statistical weighting method that gives greater influence to the polls that are most informative while reducing the effect of random variation from individual surveys,” it added.
The Daily Beast contacted the White House for comment, which referred us to the Republican National Committee.
“Polls serve as a snapshot in time, not a crystal ball. Republicans are unified in the pursuit of winning, and we’ll continue to use all the tools at our disposal to expose Democrats’ far-left agenda so we can defy history in November,” RNC national press secretary Natalie Baldassarre said.
