Polling from the six closest states that went Republican in 2016—which will be crucial in deciding if President Trump wins a second term—shows Trump narrowly ahead of Elizabeth Warren but trailing Joe Biden. A new set of surveys from The New York Times and Siena College focussed on the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina. Across those states, Trump trails Biden by an average of two points among registered voters, but leads Warren by two points. Both figures are well within the margin of error in such polling. Meanwhile, the numbers show that Bernie Sanders is deadlocked with the president among registered voters, but trailing among likely voters. The poll won't ease concerns among some Democrats that Warren's ideology and gender could hold her back if she's the 2020 candidate. The Times reports that Democrats would probably need to win at least three of these six states to win the presidency.