Ninety-two days after disappearing from public view, the likelihood of Mitch McConnell showing up for work remains unclear.
However, betting markets think McConnell is likely to return.
Polymarket gives the 84-year-old senator a 64 percent chance of returning to Washington, D.C. to vote by September 30. McConnell, 84, faces a day of reckoning as the Senate reconvenes on Monday after a five-week recess. The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. ET for the first time since leaving town on August 10, with the first vote scheduled at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Since being hospitalized on June 14, the Kentucky Republican has missed 60 votes. McConnell, the former Senate majority leader, is set to retire at the end of the year, has not responded to inquiries about when, exactly, he plans to return to the office and has not appeared publicly since his hospitalization, prompting serious concerns about his ability to remain in his role.
Trump allies, including Elon Musk, have said prediction markets are more accurate than political polling. That belief stems in part from the 2024 election, when traditional polls predicted a much closer race between Trump and Kamala Harris, while markets like Kalshi and Polymarket more closely reflected reality by showing a Trump sweep of the swing states.
However, there’s little indication that’s the case when it comes to McConnell. His press team has famously been tight-lipped, dodging basic questions regarding the senator’s health. His top staffers, including chief of staff Terry Carmack, who makes more than $226,000 annually, have also ignored questions when cornered about their boss on Capitol Hill.
His Republican colleagues, however, have expressed optimism that he would be well enough to return after the August break.
House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, who is also from Kentucky, said last week that he expected McConnell to return when the Senate came back into session. But the powerful House Republican also said he had not spoken directly to McConnell, only to his staff.
At the same time, McConnell has ignored questions from leaders in his own state, including Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who has not spoken to McConnell and has repeatedly demanded transparency for Kentuckians.
