Do this year's Golden Globe nominations offer any insight into what will win the Oscar?While the team behind La La Land (7 nominations), Moonlight (6 nominations), and Manchester By the Sea are likely popping champagne to pre-game for January 8th's boozy awards dinner, that's likely all the Golden Globes are good for in terms of any status as an Oscars bellwether: a drunken good time and, at best, occasion for some Academy Awards frontrunners to audition their acceptance speeches.The Golden Globes split their nominees into Drama and Comedy/Musical categories, which leads to some fun inclusions—Deadpool, a Best Picture nominee—but also doesn't really give any clarity on a Best Picture showdown between La La Land and Moonlight or whether La La Land's Emma Stone has any edge over Jackie's Natalie Portman. Both will likely win Globes in January.And though we're likely to see a number of the same contenders on Oscar nominations morning, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is a group of international journalists notorious for fellating A-listers at the expense of more deserving contenders and, more importantly, shares no membership with the Academy voting body—making them an unreliable crystal ball.That said, the HFPA showed remarkable restraint this year, passing over the likes of Clint Eastwood and Tom Hanks's Sully and Martin Scorsese's Silence. But should those films, or anyone who worked on Hidden Figures, Fences, or Arrival be smarting from their Best Picture snubs? Hardly.That said, who doesn't love a good awards venting session? Here's our look at the biggest snubs and surprises.SNUB: Silence

Martin Scorsese's three-plus hour opus had film bros and Scorsese stans sending out 140-character orgasms in reaction to the film's early screenings, but the film was shut out completely from the Globes nominations. The fact that the film was among the last to screen for awards consideration might have something to do with that. Expect the film, stars Andrew Garfield and Liam Neeson, and especially Scorsese to still be a major factor with the Academy.SURPRISE: Mel Gibson and Hacksaw Ridge

Has Hollywood forgiven Mel Gibson? Well, the Hollywood Foreign Press certainly seems to have. Hacksaw Ridge scored both Best Drama and Best Actor nods, the latter for Andrew Garfield. Pundits wondered whether's Gibson's past transgressions would be a liability for the film and Garfield's awards chances, but the film's award-season performance thus far indicates it's not the case at all.SNUB: Sully

Imagine the restraint it took for the HFPA to resist handing nods to Clint Eastwood and Tom Hanks for the milquetoast dad-pleaser Sully, especially with the rubber-stamping of Best Picture mentions from the likes of AFI, the BFCA, and the National Board of Review condoning the practice. It's shocking, then, that the film was completely shut out. SURPRISE: Deadpool

Deadpool is the first Marvel film to score major Golden Globe nods, with mentions in Best Comedy and Best Actor in a Comedy for Ryan Reynolds. Not even Robert Downey Jr. pulled off the latter feat for the Iron Man films.SNUB: Lucas Hedges, Manchester By the Sea

The biggest WTF category this year is Best Supporting Actor. It’s also the best proof of the Globes as an unreliable narrator in the awards season race. Manchester By the Sea breakout Lucas Hedges was expected to compete here, but instead is replaced by an out-of-left-field nomination for Florence Foster Jenkins' Simon Helberg and Nocturnal Animals' Aaron Taylor-Johnson, when it's his co-star Michael Shannon who was in awards conversations for the film.SURPRISE: Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins

Florence Foster Jenkins is a delightful movie, and the anxious, mousy turn from Simon Helberg plays a huge part in that. It's the epitome of a supporting turn, but no one expected the Big Bang Theory star to be an awards season player. He likely won't be, outside of this, just a byproduct of the Globes' whims and outsized love for Flo Fo Jen.SNUB: Finding Dory

The highest-grossing film at the 2016 box office missed out on a Best Animated Feature nomination despite the film's respectable reviews and Ellen DeGeneres's star power buoying its shot at a nomination.SURPRISE: Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

Tom Ford's moody, fetish thriller left critics polarized and was largely considered a triumph of style over substance. It's a surprise to see that narrative reversed with Ford showing up in the races for Best Director and Best Screenplay, the latter of which might be the morning's most quizzical nomination.SNUB: Hidden Figures

The crowd-pleasing, inspirational film about NASA's trailblazing black, female mathematicians has critics cheerleading for a "This One's For the People" Oscar nod. (Think The Blind Side, The Help…) But both the film and its lead Taraji P. Henson were passed over by the HFPA, with its sole nods going to Octavia Spencer, who showed up instead of the predicted Janelle Monáe, and Best Score.SURPRISE: Hailee Steinfeld, Edge of Seventeen

Critics had their fingers crossed that the strong work from the young star would show up in this category, but hardly anyone expected her to get in over Hollywood titans Sally Field (Hello, My Name Is Doris) and Susan Sarandon (The Meddler). In fact, this entry could be about the snubs of the latter two actresses, whose work is among the strongest in their careers, but we're choosing to look on the bright side instead.SNUB: Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply

Warren Beatty has three Golden Globe wins, 11 nominations, and a Cecile B. DeMille lifetime achievement award. But for his first acting role in 15 years and his first trip to the director's chair since 1998's Bulworth, he is skipped over in the Best Actor in a Comedy category for Jonah Hill's performance in War Dogs, a film I had to Google to make sure exists.SURPRISE: Hell or High Water

It's not that Hell or High Water doesn't deserve the nomination, or isn't considered to be a major Oscars player. It's that the $27-million grosser is on a much smaller scale than Silence, Sully, Arrival, Fences, or Hidden Figures that the Globes, for once, put blinders to the flashier entries and went for this indie in Best Drama instead.SNUB: Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship

Beckinsale's mannered, salty work in Love & Friendship was one of my favorite performances of the year. Because Whit Stillman's Jane Austen adaptation and Beckinsale's charms are so cosmopolitan, we assumed the film would be catnip for the international journalists in the HFPA. But, sadly, not the case.