One of the top candidates for John McCain’s VP slot in 2008, the Minnesota governor set off a firestorm of speculation this week after he announced he would not seek a third term. The move could prove to be a shrewd one on a variety of fronts for Pawlenty if he decides to run for president in 2012. For one, he won’t be around for the tough budget cuts and/or tax increases that inevitably will fall on governors around the country. The decision also gives him more time to tour the country and build his national profile, as well as more freedom in handling Norm Coleman’s lawsuit against Al Franken, who soon will likely be declared the winner in the 2008 Senate race by the Minnesota Supreme Court. While there were signs that Pawlenty could face a backlash from Minnesota voters if he refused to certify the election results, a move that would help him with the national Republican base, he now can act without fear of reprisal at the ballot box.
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The architect of the 1994 Republican revolution, the former House Speaker has kept a very high profile in recent weeks, boosting talk of a 2012 bid. Last month he scored points with the base by forcefully defending Dick Cheney’s anti-Obama campaign. He also led a GOP assault against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whom he called a “loser” who “lied to the House” about CIA torture briefings. But it’s possible that his famed attack-dog approach to politics has finally gotten out of control. After initially branding President Obama’s Supreme Court pick, Judge Sonia Sotomayor, a “racist,” Gingrich was criticized by members of his own party, including Senator John Cornyn (R-TX), for damaging their brand. Responding to the pressure, Gingrich walked back his words, writing in Human Events that he was “perhaps too strong and too direct” in his reaction. In other noteworthy Gingrich happenings, the former lawmaker recently converted to Catholicism, perhaps giving him extra cover with religious GOP voters who may be skeptical about his previously sordid personal life.
David J. Phillip
The Louisiana governor has been keeping a low profile in recent months, focusing more on fixing his state’s budget gap than big national appearances. The rising young star of the GOP crashed back to earth in February after offering a widely panned response to President Obama’s address to Congress on national television. In addition to a weak delivery, Jindal’s speech came back to haunt him again when a volcano erupted in Alaska weeks after he specifically criticized including funds for volcano monitoring in the stimulus bill. Since his awkward national debut, Jindal has shown little life in the polls—one recent CNN survey of 2012 contenders didn’t even mention his name. He’s currently battling state lawmakers in Louisiana over how to plug a gap in the state’s education budget, which the state senate has voted to fix with tax hikes— a move anathema to GOP primary voters. One advantage Jindal has is, surprisingly, Louisiana’s economy, which has not suffered quite as badly as the nation’s since the economic collapse—a fact that may be attributed partly to a $51 billion infusion of federal funds into the state since Hurricane Katrina struck.
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What is it about Judge Sonia Sotomayor that makes Republican presidential hopefuls put their foot in their mouth? The former Arkansas governor blew his first shot at criticizing President Obama’s Supreme Court pick last week by referring to her as “Maria.” That screwup aside, Huckabee has been steadily building up his credibility with the base and narrowly leads the Republican 2012 field in the latest CNN poll. His Fox News show gives him a forum to communicate with his followers, and stunts like performing a duet with American Idol winner Kris Allen are a good way to grab attention. Attention also will likely turn to Huckabee’s presidential ambitions later this month, when he delivers a speech at a fundraiser in Iowa, site of his upset primary win in 2008.
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Never one to miss out on a popular issue with the base, the typically more economy- and heartland-oriented former Massachusetts governor recently followed Dick Cheney's lead in attacking President Obama on national security. On Monday, he delivered a speech at the Heritage Foundation accusing the president of weakness in standing up to Iran, North Korea, and other adversaries. “Arrogant, delusional tyrants can not be stopped by earnest words and furrowed brows,” Romney said at the event. “Action, strong, bold action coming from a position of strength and determination, is the only effective deterrent.” On Tuesday he continued the assault, preemptively attacking Obama’s overseas trip on Fox News as a dangerously apologetic signal to the world. In addition to his frequent media appearances, Romney recently delivered a keynote speech at the Virginia Republican Party’s Commonwealth Gala dinner in Richmond, giving him another opportunity to build his profile among the party’s elite.
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At this point, any day the Alaska governor and her family are not in the tabloids is a good one. Her initial efforts after the 2008 election to re-establish herself as a national political figure have been constantly undermined by distractions like her family feud with Levi Johnston, father of her daughter Bristol Palin’s baby son. Balancing GOP primary politics with her state’s needs has proved tough at times: After initially refusing $1 billion in stimulus funds as a protest against President Obama, she was forced to walk back her position when angry state lawmakers threatened to override her and accept the much-needed cash. Palin is also a frequent target of ethics complaints, nearly all of which have been dismissed, but remain a constant source of frustration. Some observers have suggested that Palin’s headaches at home might lead her to follow Governor Tim Pawlenty in forgoing a re-election bid. On the bright side, the Federal Election Commission recently determined that the RNC’s $150,000 spending spree on the vice presidential candidate’s wardrobe during the 2008 election was 100 percent legal.
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In a field of interesting potential “firsts” for the 2012 GOP nomination (Mormon, non-white, female), South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford is considered the most traditional Republican in biography and ideology. He’s successfully carved out a role so far as a leading critic of President Obama’s economic policies, most notably the stimulus bill, where he has sought to turn down $700 million in federal funds from the recovery package. Like other governors who have rejected stimulus funding, Sanford has found that his own state’s lawmakers have been far less keen on the idea, setting up a major battle over the issue. His tactics have earned him valuable coverage in the national press, where he has more ground to make up than some of the other candidates in getting his name out, as he has not previously run for national office.
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Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana, who previously served in the Bush administration as head of the Office of Management and Budget, has largely stayed off the national stage. His populist style and easy re-election in Indiana, even as it voted for President Obama in the presidential election, have put him on the radar for 2012. Recently, however, Daniels has finally started to draw national attention by becoming one of the GOP’s top dogs on energy issues—a position that will surely become more and more high-profile as Obama’s plans to regulate carbon emissions make their way through Congress. Daniels also drew praise from Republican bigwig Bill Kristol, who is credited with helping engineer Sarah Palin’s national rise to prominence, for a speech he delivered at Butler University in which he blasted the baby boomer generation for being “ just plain selfish.”
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One of the top names floated for 2012 after John McCain lost in November, the popular Utah governor has acquired a reputation as a centrist on issues like the environment, immigration, and gay rights, and some observers thought that he might stand the best chance against President Obama if he were able to make it out of the Republican primaries. But the likelihood of such a matchup appeared to take a major hit when Huntsman accepted a surprise offer to become Obama’s ambassador to China, a country with which the governor has strong ties. Experts noted that the move not only removed a potential rival for Obama but had the added effect of taking away one of the only prominent voices for moderation in the party, leaving it in the hands of more extreme— and polarizing—leaders as it seeks to make inroads with new voters.
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Want a bunch of newspaper headlines discussing your presidential ambitions? Go to Iowa. It certainly worked for Nevada Senator John Ensign, who attracted attention with a speech in Sioux City on Monday in front of a conservative group, the American Future Fund. “Let me say very clearly, I’m not running for president,” he said at the event. “I’m raising my national profile because I believe we need fresh voices and fresh faces in the Republican Party to attract more people to our party.” Despite his denials, Ensign’s speech is likely to draw further attention to his political ambitions going forward.
Xtra Insight: Read Mark McKinnon on the next Republican president.
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