Another day, another poll. Wall St. Journal/NBC survey has good news/bad news for Obama. He leads by four points but there's a distinct uptick of economic pessimism since March.
I was surprised to see, though, a few crosstabs. Look at these:
In the newest poll, Obama leads Romney among African Americans (88 percent to 2 percent), 18 to 34 year olds (55 percent to 35 percent), women (53 percent to 38 percent), independents (44 percent to 36 percent), and seniors (46 percent to 44 percent).
Romney, meanwhile, holds the advantage with whites (52 percent to 39 percent), men (49 percent to 40 percent), suburban residents (47 percent to 41 percent), Midwest residents (48 percent to 43 percent), and high-interest voters (47 percent to 44 percent).
Okay. The gender gap is 15 points. Maybe that Times poll was horseshit. And I am surprised to see Obama leading by 8 points among independents. That's what he won them by last time. Of course 10 percent of them in this survey are undecided. But if Romney can't close that gap there is no way he can win.
Obama also leads among Latinos by 61 to 27 percent, which is about on par with what happened last time. Gay marriage is a wash in this poll, maybe a slight net for Romney, but slight.
But here's the thing that jumped out at me. How confident are you that Candidate X's "goals and policies"--not background or job experience; goals and policies--can improve the economy?
Obama, extremely/quite confident: 32 percent
Romney, extremely/quite confident: 19 percent
That's the Achilles Heel, gang. Not Bain. Maybe this Bain stuff softens him up a little. Fine. But the winning economic argument isn't Bain, it's the ferociously irresponsible and nakedly one-percent-loving Romney economic plan. That's where this economic debate needs to go.