Today, nowhere is the Arab revolt more white-hot than in Syria. President Bashar al-Assad has been in power for 11 years; his father ruled for nearly three decades before him. Both controlled their country with an iron fist, and a largely effective one, too. But now the question has become: Can Assad last</a>? His massively fearful security state has been brutal against protesters, but with the killing of a 13-year-old boy setting off even more popular fury, Assad's strong-arm strategy is looking as if it may be on a collision course with history.
Nader Daoud / AP Photo
Lest it be forgotten, just 21 years ago the end of a civil war marked the formation of the modern state of Yemen. It is the poorest country in the Arab world, and in recent weeks it not only has been swept up by protests, but full-on armed conflict so vicious that last week, during Friday prayers, the presidential palace was shelled and President Ali Abdullah Saleh reportedly was injured. He has since left the country for Saudi Arabia, and the future of the state, which is riddled with factions of al Qaeda, looks potentially disastrous.
Ahmad Gharabli / AFP / Getty Images
The NATO air campaign against Libya began in February. Today, bombs still are relentlessly falling on strategic positions held by Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. In an eloquent essay, veteran war correspondent John Burns says this all this has a distinct feeling of déjà vu. But exactly what is the endgame? While it seems that the real goal is Gaddafi's ouster, in many ways that would only leave a largely tribal country to fend for itself, which, dangerously, could mean many factions fighting for themselves.
Rodrigo Abd / AP Photo
No matter what happens in the Arab Spring, there's a good chance it will be the revolution in Egypt that changes the world more than anything else. When Hosni Mubarak was president, his country stood as the chief regional U.S. ally (and a massive recipient of money from Washington). With him gone, protesters in Tahrir Square, as well as optimists in the West, have been cheering for elections and a strong rule of law—in other words, democracy. Exactly how democratic Egypt will be, however, is still to be determined. The interim government is being run by the military, Egyptians say they care far more about jobs and money than having a vote, and, as is true in any society, some disturbing things are very difficult to change. That said, in many ways Cairo is the bellwether, as it has long been the real center of gravity for the entire Arab world.
Tarek Fawzy / AP Photo
Tunisians may have been hugely tired of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali—so much so that they ousted him in January—but one thing he did deliver was regular economic growth (some 5 percent a year). Now Tunisia's economy has flatlined, and with huge questions about its political future and a quiet tourist season afoot, what or who could jump-start the country remains elusive.
Fethi Belaid / AFP / Getty Images
A tiny country of 33 islands in the Persian Gulf with barely more than a million people, Bahrain boasts outsized stature because of its role as a financial hub and its strategic importance to the U.S. as home to the Navy's Fifth Fleet. So, as people have poured into the streets, Washington, as well as neighboring Saudi Arabia, opted for stability. The Saudis sent in tanks. Washington kept mum. Reportedly, Bahrain's crown prince will visit the White House this week.
Hassan Ammar / AP Photo
One way to put it: The Saudis are having none of it. The hugely repressive regime—and staunch U.S. ally—has felt no shame in putting down any inkling of protest. And because of the huge reliance on the House of Saud for oil, Washington is content to sit on the sidelines. But a potentially more fearsome foe awaits the kingdom: Iran. Some argue that the real geopolitical reckoning to come is a regional showdown" between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Clearly, both have been throwing around their weight wherever they can, and that showdown seems only to be beginning.
Rafiq Maqbool / AP Photo
And then there's Israel. Clearly, with the revolution in Egypt, it lost a friend in Hosni Mubarak. And nobody likes to have nearly every country around it in the throes of unrest. When The Daily Beast's Michelle Goldberg asked Tzipi Livni, the head of Kadima, what it all meant for the Jewish state, Livni said, "It depends whether it’s spring or autumn, whether we are going to face summer or winter." Either Arabs in the streets fight for democracy, or radical forces take the momentum. In many ways, Jerusalem is playing a game of wait and see.
Menahem Kahana / AFP / Getty Images
After years of Washington fighting a war in Iraq to bring democracy to at least one part of the Arab world, the echo from Obama's White House has been making a completely different point. Citizens of each country must determine their own future, it has argued. And as the president has had to explain why it favors bombing in Libya but dragged its heels in pushing sanctions on Syria, the echo says, at the same time, that each situation is unique. Those strategies have allowed Washington leeway on what is undoubtedly a rapidly changing situation. But lawmakers in Congress are starting to push back, and the future of the U.S. in the Middle East looks, not only less predictable, but more and more out of its control.
Manuel Balce Ceneta / AP Photo
