CNN’s data guru says the Democratic primary for the next presidential election is looking like a “total mess” as it stands now.
In a segment on Tuesday’s episode of CNN News Central, the network’s chief data correspondent, Harry Enten, examined the polling odds for the four major contenders in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary.
Among California Gov. Gavin Newsom, former vice president and 2024 presidential candidate Kamala Harris, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Enten stressed that the fact there was no clear frontrunner was ”very unusual."
“Yeah, they’re all running, and this is just a downright clown car at this point on the Democratic side,” he told host John Berman.
“You have a ‘leader,’ but it’s not really a clear leader,” Enten said. “It’s within the margin of error.”
He explained that among the four potential nominees, Newsom was polling highest at 19 percent, followed closely by Harris at 18 percent. Not far behind, Buttigieg was polling at 13 percent while Ocasio-Cortez trailed at 12 percent.
“This is just a total clown car. It is a total mess,” Enten said. “There is no clear frontrunner at this particular point on the Democratic side. Who the heck knows who the nominee is going to be in two years?”
“This is very unusual for the Democratic side to not have a clear frontrunner at this point,” he added.
The analyst explained that this marks the first time there hasn’t been a national early poll leader for the Democratic Party since 1992.
He pointed out that Joe Biden in 2020, Hillary Clinton in 2008 and 2016, and Al Gore in 2000 and 2004 all polled above 25 percent at this point when there was no Democratic incumbent running.
“You have to go all the way back to when I wasn’t even in elementary school yet, even in Pre-K yet, to 1992—that was the last cycle in which there was no clear frontrunner at this point,” Enten, 37, said. “Very unusual.”
Berman noted in the segment that Clinton did not win in the 2008 primary, and Gore dropped out of his 2004 primary bid. The host then asked Enten about Newsom’s odds according to the Kalshi prediction market.
Three months ago, Enten said, Newsom was polling at 37 percent for the Democratic nomination. But now, his odds have dropped to 28 percent.
“Down he goes,” he said. “He’s definitely flailing a little bit.”
Enten also highlighted that Google search traffic for Newsom has dropped considerably since it peaked in August 2025 when he began trolling Trump on social media, plummeting 63 percent.
