CNN data analyst Harry Enten was stunned as he revealed that Democrats have flipped the GOP’s Trump-led redistricting battle in their favor.
The 37-year-old data guru explained how several states’ redistricting efforts could lead to the Democrats potentially gaining one or more new districts on Thursday’s CNN News Central.
“It started in Texas. It looked like Republicans, it was most likely that they were going to get, nationwide, five seats,” Enten said to CNN News Central’s Kate Borduan.
“But today, at this point, the most likely outcome is Democrats actually gaining from the mid-decade redistricting battle,” he added with a flourish.
In August, Texas redrew its congressional map at the urging of the Trump administration, giving itself five more Republican districts. Congressional maps are usually redrawn every ten years, coinciding with the U.S. Census’s collection of population data.
Other states followed suit. Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina adjusted their maps to give themselves an additional Republican seat, while Florida is poised to vote on a new GOP-friendly map later this year. Indiana notably resisted the Trump administration’s pressure to adjust its congressional map and give Republicans a boost.
The GOP’s effort to redistrict its way into a House majority comes as polls and special elections suggest Democrats hold the upperhand in the 2026 midterms.
But Democrats countered with redistricting efforts of their own.
California notably passed Prop 50 in November 2025, giving the state five additional Democratic districts. A Utah judge shot down the state’s all-red map in November, giving Democrats another blue seat there.
Virginia, Maryland, and New York could pick up more blue seats as their legislatures hash out new maps.
The result of all these machinations is that the GOP’s post-Texas 5-seat gain has completely evaporated, and now Democrats might have a small advantage heading into the 2026 midterms.
“The bottom line is this: it started out as a plus for Republicans, and now it looks like the Democrats have fought back and fought back in a major way,” exclaimed Enten. “It looks like it‘s going to be a plus for them nationwide.”
Enten stressed that Democrats’ new advantage isn’t huge.
“I wouldn‘t be surprised if it‘s tied. I wouldn‘t be surprised if Democrats actually gain 2 or 3 seats from the mid-decade redistricting battle,” he said.
Still, he couldn’t contain his shock that it got this close at all.
“If you said to me last summer, Democrats are more likely to gain than Republicans, I wouldn‘t buy it,” he said. “But again, as I said at the start, Donald Trump and the Republicans started this mid-decade redistricting war, but it looks like Democrats are going to finish him off.”
“I mean, just vibes from the summer when this all rolled out, you would not expect this,” commented Borduan.
“No, this is one of the biggest shockers in the last half year of electoral politics,” Enten concurred.
